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12/22/2009
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10 Things That WON'T Happen In 2009 - Were We Right or Wrong?

bMighty bravely goes back to check whether our 2009 "anti-predictions" held true -- or if they actually happened. How well do you think we did?

Like just about every pundit on the planet, just about a year ago bMighty laid out its projections for 2009. Unlike most media sites, though, instead of making boring old standard predictions, we said what we DIDN'T think would happen this year. Also unlike most media blowhards, we've got the guts to go back and look at how we did.

Just to recap, here's the list (with links to the original anti-predictions):

1. SMBs Will Get A Bailout

2. Firefox, Chrome, Safari, And Opera Become More Popular Than IE

3. Security Concerns Go Down

4. Linux On The Desktop Goes Mainstream

5. Economic Woes Will Stall Green IT & Kill Entrepreneurship

6. Blogging Will Be Replaced By Twitter And Facebook And Flickr

7. Windows 7 Will Ship

8. The Cloud Will Crash

9. WiMax Will Replace Wi-Fi

10. Google Will Stop Offering Free Lunches

Let's look at them one by one, and label them RIGHT, WRONG, or FUZZY.

1. SMBs Will Get A Bailout
Despite lots of noise in the last few weeks from the Obama administration about finally using bailout funds to help Main Street instead of Wall Street, most SMBs still -- rightly -- feel like they got little or nothing out of the bailout. And even if the Feds do finally cough up some cash to help small businesses, companies won't likely see any of it in 2009.
Verdict: RIGHT!

2. Firefox, Chrome, Safari, And Opera Become More Popular Than IE
The alternative browsers continue to gain popularity, but they remain a long way away unseating Internet Explorer. Recent data still give IE 63.6% of the browser market. Firefox is next with 24.7%. Chrome has 4.4% and Safari just 4.37%. Do the math yourself to figure out how much is left for Opera.
Verdict: RIGHT!

3. Security Concerns Go Down
Ha! Like that was ever going to happen. We almost feel bad for claiming this one, since it was such an obvious, tongue-in-cheek, slam dunk. Nevertheless...
Verdict: RIGHT!

4. Linux On The Desktop Goes Mainstream
Well, Linux went more mainstream, but it's still a big stretch to put it in the class with Windows 7 and Mac OS X. Not sure that's ever going to happen, or even that it would be a good thing. We may be better off keeping Linux for the nerds in the know.
Verdict: RIGHT!

5. Economic Woes Will Stall Green IT & Kill Entrepreneurship
This is a bit of a tough one. We don't think it's fair to say that the Great Recession -- as bMighty has taken to calling our current "situation" -- has stopped Green IT, but it's certainly made folks less willing to spend big bucks on it -- even as energy prices have moderated. At the same time, with all the folks thrown out of work this year, there are suddenly a lot of budding entrepreneurs trying to start new businesses. There's not a lot of capital behind them, but there's no lack of drive and enthusiasm.
Verdict: FUZZY

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