InformationWeek

Forecasting The Future

Microsoft's Liquid Crystal Ball predicts some surprising events in the computer industry

By Stephen Manes
Issue column appeared: Jan. 2, 1995

Deep in the bowels of Microsoft Corp.'s Redmond, Wash., headquarters, programmers are working on a top-secret neural-network expert system known as the Liquid Crystal Ball (code-named "Elsie Bee"). Used internally for some time at Microsoft, the technology has led to the software giant's amazing ability to predict trends in the computer industry. Now Microsoft is preparing a consumer version of the product, and a source I know smuggled one out.

After the manda tory design-firm makeover, Elsie Bee will undoubtedly emerge with a svelte new figure. But today she looks a bit like a Magic Eight-Ball with eyes. Hook her up to the bidirectional parallel port of a Pentium-class machine, roll her around a stack of computer publications, and you get forecasts about the industry's future.

Elsie Speaks
Of course, the consumer version is considerably reduced in power so as not to give competitors an advantage over Microsoft. Still, a half-hour of work with the machine delivered some interesting prognostications:

A band of crazed OS/2 fanatics dressed in pointy ears and bad toupees will march on Washington with the goal of making Warp the sole operating system for the galaxy. The name Warp will lead certain Congressional representatives to accuse IBM of fomenting a "one universe" concept denying American sovereignty over the cosmos.

Beginning in early September, Microsoft will lobby the National Observatory for a leap da y to be added to 1995 to ensure that the new version of Windows will ship on time. In early October, Microsoft will ask that January 1996 be renamed Billuary 1995-in honor of President Clinton, of course.

Personnel deciduous adulterants dill mark green breakfronts on handshaking resonance ticklers. (I think what Elsie was trying to say is "Personal digital assistants will make great breakthroughs in handwriting-recognition technologies." But I can't swear to it.)

The arrival of Plug and Play technology will enable millions of Windows users to wonder why they didn't buy a Macintosh five years ago. Or a week ago.

Apple Computer and IBM will announce they have agreed on a standard operating system they can mutually support. Initially known as CP/M/BIrewoP, it will be advertised under the slogan "Spell it backwards." Under IBM's new FLWFOS (Four-Letter Words For Operating Systems) policy, which will lead to the acquisition of Pick early in the year, a clever joint-marketing deal negotiated by former RJR Nabisco chief Louis Gerstner will dub the new operating system "Ritz."

A startup called "Meltimedia" will develop exciting new products from the post-Christmas glut of unsold CD-ROM titles. Look for belt buckles, earrings, necklaces, and computer stands with the green "Recycled Polycarbonate: Good For America" logo.

Infrared devices of all types will become so popular that IBM finally will be able to sell the cordless PCjr keyboards it has squirreled away since the mid-'80s. Campaign theme: "Just slightly ahead of our time" or "Told you so."

The Public Broadcasting Service will launch a series called "I-Way Fast Lane," subtitled "At Home With ISDN," 300 nightly episodes intended to help Mr. and Mrs. America get their connections up and running.

A hitherto unknown software house from abroad will demonstrate its powerful approach to speech recognition. Complingua, an entirely new spoken l anguage, will eliminate ambiguity. "Empowerize ... computmachine ... speakperson ... adaptatatationalism," a Complingua developer will state very slowly.

The Internet will be hard pressed to recover after the system comes to a grinding halt as it spins off the trillionth iteration of the phrase "Do not break the chain!" in a single hour. To memorialize this development, Internet cultists worldwide will wear chain mail.

On his 40th birthday, a young leader of unbounded wealth will tire of the competitive grind, retire from the company he co-founded, donate all his worldly goods to the indigent, take a vow of silence, and-Now, just a darned minute! Hmmm. I see here that I have inadvertently clicked the "negative" checkbox. According to the alpha help file (the one labeled "This Might Help, But Don't Bet On It"), this mode makes Elsie Bee spit out predictions that are guaranteed NOT to happen.

Hey, nobody said figuring out these newfangled Windows 95 interfaces wou ld be easy.