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Tech View: History Can Help Judge TCO
By Sean Gallagher
The whole concept of TCO, when applied to any desktop hardware-be it network computer, network PC, Windows terminal, standard desktop PC, or the "managed" PC recently proposed by 3Com and its technology partners-is educated guesswork at its best and unadulterated voodoo at its worst. Considering that, aside from standard PCs, none of these platforms has been widely deployed enough to get a handle on what they will really cost to deploy, operate, and maintain, any claim
s made in defense of any desktop technology based on TCO are purely speculative.
But there is a readily available prognostication tool for judging how the new desktop technologies will play out. It's called history.
Around the turn of the decade, 3Com was involved with another thin-client technology-diskless network workstations. They were desktop PCs with no onboard storage and a boot programmable ROM to load the operating system onto the local processor and get them onto the network. Sound familiar yet?
Both 3Com's diskless workstation and a similar product deployed by Novell went absolutely nowhere. The reasons? First of all, standard PCs with their own storage weren't much more expensive than diskless systems-in some cases, they were cheaper. Also, network storage was much more expensive, byte for byte, than storage on a local hard drive. Users still needed technical support, and administrators spent more time managing storage on the server. In addition, because of their relatively proprietar
y nature, they were quickly left behind by the rapid progress of standard PCs.
Once bitten, twice shy. 3Com's latest strategy, in its partnering with companies such as client-management software vendor On Technology Corp., is simply to put management features on a network interface card (NIC)-giving existing and future PCs a set of "zero administration" capabilities similar to that of Intel's network PCs. But this strategy does have a few distinct advantages over network PCs-for one, IT managers can buy PCs from anyone they want, and upgrade anytime they want just by moving the NIC. Also, replacing a burned-out NIC is bound to be less expensive and simpler than replacing the motherboard of a network PC-I'm sure that factors into TCO somewhere.
Sure, 3Com is hoping this will sell more NICs. But those who don't learn from history are bound to repeat it.
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