InformationWeek

September 14, 1998

Executive Report: Platform Wars And Opportunities

By Stuart J. Johnston

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ith new operating systems on the horizon-Windows NT 5.0 and updated versions of Unix-IT executives must re-evaluate what they use for desktops, servers, and enterprise systems. NT 5.0 promises to lower total cost of ownership by 50%, and deliver the stability, reliability, and scalability demanded by IT managers. Unix vendors are working to stop their declining sales growth. SCO Inc., for instance, is developing a 64-bit version of Unix and enhancing its scalability.

chart Two new features in Windows NT 5.0-the IntelliMirror technologies and Active Directory-are designed to cut support and maintenance costs. Though NT 5.0 doesn't improve on NT 4.0's scalability, Microsoft plans to extend clustering and support for machines with more than eight processors in a special edition or add-on to be released about the same time as NT 5.0.

While Microsoft says workstation, server, and enterprise editions are scheduled for release during the first half of 1999, many analysts don't expect them until the second half of the year. Gartner Group Inc. predicts they won't come before 2000.

In the meantime, NT 4.0 is becoming the dominant desktop operating system for several reasons: it's easier to use than Unix; it's more stable and secure than Windows 95 or Windows 98; and most PCs today have enough power, memory, and disk space to run it.

NT 4.0 is also making headway into the server arena and making its way into high-end enterprise systems, according to a recent InformationWeek Research survey of 150 IT managers. A whopping 68% of respondents say they plan to deploy NT on the desktop and on application servers within the next two years. And 49% will deploy NT as an enterprisewide operating system.

Still, it's too early to give up on Unix. Many of the 51% of survey respondents who don't plan to deploy NT will stick with Unix for their enterprise needs. And 61% plan to replace some desktop users' PCs with thin-client devices within two years.

And Unix vendors, such as Sun Microsystems, aren't taking the swing to NT sitting down. Many are including features to support NCs and Java, and they're adding even greater scalability. Also, full 64-bit versions of Unix may be available before Microsoft releases a full 64-bit version of NT; NT 5.0 will support only 64-bit memory and disk addressing.

The debate over NT and Unix can reach a religious fervor, as IT managers extol their favorite operating system. But in the end, years of painful testing and lessons learned from implementations will determine whether Unix remains dominant or is toppled by NT. Then again, there may never be a definitive winner.

Senior editor Stuart J. Johnston covers operating systems.

"Executive Report: IT Innovators"

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