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January 3, 2000

Futurescape:
Goodbye Problems, Hello Benefits
Technology's infrastructure was built in the 20th century; it will become invisible in the 21st century, leaving us to reap the rewards

By Donald A. Norman

Donald A. Norman e've been at this IT stuff long enough. It's time to forget about exciting, cool technology with its concomitant breakdowns, frustrations, and bugs. Instead, let's focus on the benefits, services, and results of all this technology. After all, we want technology that just works and is taken so much for granted that we won't even know it's there--like sewers and the electrical wiring in our homes. That's what the 21st century should be about. And that's what I predict will indeed happen.

The 20th century has seen incredible change. In 1900, the telegraph, the phonograph, movies, and the telephone were just emerging. Radio and television--let alone the computer--didn't even exist. Today, the world is connected, computerized, communicating.

But this is also the century of frustration with technology--a time when systems cost millions to deploy yet often fail to deliver on their promises. Systems too often require continual maintenance, upgrading, coaxing, tinkering, and praying. From the everyday user's point of view, the computer is complex and unstable. From a business point of view, it's also expensive to maintain.

Technology will change in the 21st century, and so will its role. People's basic needs for food, shelter, clothing, and medical care will remain. We need to be educated, to do business, to be entertained, and to participate in leisure activities. The biggest difference will be in the way we meet these basic needs--and that's where technology comes into play.

When everything is interconnected, education can be delivered anywhere, anytime. With lifelong education on demand, educational institutions will take on new forms, as will medical care, news, and entertainment. To make sure chaos doesn't result, more intermediation will be needed, such as intelligent human editors who select and combine information. Similarly, educational courses might be available to everyone, but we'll need qualified purveyors who can guarantee the instruction's integrity.

We already see changes occurring within companies. The information available on intranets provides a daunting challenge to anyone who needs to find something but doesn't know where it might be. Historically, reference librarians have helped out in these situations, and as a result, librarians are finding themselves in demand, often working with IT. Web-site architecture, appropriate use of cataloging methods and indexes, modern search engines, and other aids are critical and interdependent as the amount of information increases.

There are other implications of all this change. The deadly paradox of the information society is this: The more others know about us, the better they can serve us and deliver the services we require. But the more they know, the more likely are the misuses and the selling of private data, threatening privacy.

The 20th century will be known as the time when the infrastructure was built. The 21st century will be known as the reaping century, when the infrastructure was put into place so it became invisible, so people no longer cared.

We're finally turning the corner on the complexity and instability of today's technology. As it matures, the computer can be built into everything, everywhere, and when it's inside everything, it disappears from view.

We seldom brag that our home has electricity, indoor toilets, or a paved road to the door. Similarly, we'll someday take computing and communication for granted. All our devices will be interconnected. We will no longer speak of the PC or of the Internet. Hurrah and good riddance.

Some trends are obvious. If the 20th century was about hardware and technology, the 21st will be about software and "wetware," or biologically based computing. The hard core of mechanical and electronic technology will be supplemented by the soft core of biological and cognitive technologies. Biological computing mechanisms will develop, as will cognitive artifacts, human-made devices that aid cognition and increase our ability to think, plan, and remember. Robots will wander the halls, affording pleasure and doing routine services.

If the 20th century started with so little and ended up so richly endowed, imagine what the 21st century might bring. We might even have a world in which IT works so well that it fades invisibly into the background, providing service and functions without notice. Imagine a time when IT professionals are considered heroes, providing service and value to all.

Donald A. Norman is president of UNext Learning Systems and UNext.com, and author of The Invisible Computer (MIT Press, 1998).

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