6. Bots, Bots, And More Bots
Why bother with cloud-hosted malware when botnets offer the same service for less? Even better for cybercriminals, botnets offer a source of income. For security vendors, that suggests bots will continue to become more sophisticated. Botnets have become the foundation of cybercrime, Symantec claims.
Dan Hubbard, CTO of Websense, said that there has been some good news about bots -- better communication in the security community and with law enforcement, resulting in more arrests and botnet takedowns than in the past.
But because botnets generate cash for criminals, he expects more criminal gangs will choose a path to wealth that's easier than building a botnet: hijacking a botnet operated by a different gang.
That kind of conflict could actually limit botnet growth or at least attract the attention of security experts and law enforcement. Contrarian view: Botnets not only have to defend against security researchers, but against other botnet operators. Websense sees botnet gangs fighting turf wars, similar to the way that the Bredolab botnet shut down the Zeus/Zbot on infected computers.
7. Piracy Gets Riskier
In early December, Microsoft launched a broad effort to reduce software piracy, noting that it has received a rising number of complaints from users who purchased or otherwise obtained pirated versions of Windows.
It seems that counterfeit software is increasingly infected software. IBM Internet Security Systems' X-Force researchers expect that use of pirated software will increasingly lead to malware infection and that users of such software will become the "Typhoid Marys" of the global computing community.
Contrarian view: Will the last user of desktop software please turn out the lights? We're all moving into the cloud where we don't have to worry about a counterfeit, infectious version of Google Apps, at least until someone alters our DNS host file.
8. Mobile Security Becomes Real Issue
"Smartphones such as the iPhone and Android-based handsets, which are used increasingly for business purposes, are essentially miniature personal computers, and in 2010 will face the same types of attacks that target traditional computing," predicts Websense. And the company is not alone in that belief. Practically every security vendor has or is developing a mobile security product or service. As with Macs, the security industry would welcome a new market.
Websense's Hubbard says it will be interesting to see how Apple's closed App Store and Google's more open Android Market compare in terms of mobile malware in 2010.
Contrarian view: The researchers at IBM ISS X-Force believe that attacks on mobile phones will remain scarce. But while network-based attacks on mobile phones may remain relatively rare, physical attacks will rise: Snatch-and-grab attacks are considerably easier than cyberattacks and produce both data and a physical item that can be sold. With unemployment over 10%, unsolicited phone collection could become a growth industry.