InformationWeek

January 24, 2000

My Wish For The Other Guys

Mergers, breakups, and boardroom shake-ups: That's why we have labs and research

The new millennium is still wet behind the ears, and we're already seeing mega-mergers, stock-market records, hotter flames over Internet taxes, Gates stepping sideways, and the onslaught of Windows 2000: The Release. The frenetic pace of change refuses to let us spell-check our E-mail, much less re-lace our Skechers. As the election year unfolds, here's a list of things I'd like to see happen to other people-but not to our readers.

Breakups. I'd like to know whether the creative minds in the Justice Department who advocate splitting Microsoft into three companies have ever heard of the Hydra myth. That's the Greek ditty about a three-headed beast (though some say nine). Do the math: Generally, you're better off trying to slay a one-headed beast, maybe a Centaur, especially one that's unlikely to grow more heads when necessary. Undoubtedly, a breakup is a compelling idea to intellectual-property lawyers, and it's hard to argue with increased competition. But hatching a bunch of Baby Bills wouldn't spawn competition; it would be more like shooting ourselves in the feet. It makes no difference to the legal eagles in the Justice Department if trying to get the Baby Bills to answer questions or resolve issues about Windows 2000 requires formal mediation.
Mergers. Someday we may all work for Steve Case. By that time, however, the price-earnings ratio of AOL Time Warner Microsoft AT&T Clorox CMP Fidelity Yahoo! will be in the high ten-thousands. Think of how much more efficient our economy will be when there are fewer choices. Motto: Don't burn your bridges.t" be* Convergence. Be on the lookout for broadband testing in 2000-"lookout" because we're just not there yet. Oh, the hype machine is running overtime, but as for the installed base and available content, wake me up in 2002. Still, you have to like convergence as a long-term play. My suggestion for a hit show combining video, voice, and interactive stocks: Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser. In the IT space, you might look for interactive courseware or certification. How do you profit from this next big thing? One strategy that's easier said than done: Set your clocks back 18 months, and bet your nest egg on AT&T. I know we'll have reached convergence when I can take a pasta cooking class with Emeril Lagasse and he can virtually look over my shoulder and tell me to add more cayenne pepper.
Windows 2000. Research says you will all be queuing up on Feb. 17 to watch the other guy try it first. I'm so tired of Windows 98 crashing that I may be the first one on my virtual block to attempt the upgrade. On second thought, that's why we have labs.
ASPs. Application service providers are the next big real thing, as opposed to the really big next thing or the big thing, really. A majority of readers say their companies plan to use these services to host at least a few E-business, data warehouse, or ERP applications in the next 12 months. Yet no one really knows if most of (or which of) the ASPs are capable of delivering 24-by-7 uptime and support. Do you want your key business applications coming to you over the Internet this year? This, too, is why we have labs. Wake me in 2001.
Bubbles. Is it really fair to call Internet stock valuations a bubble? From the Left Coast, it looks like a gigantic rubber band, one that could snap-and when it does, remember to double down your bets. How are Time Warner shareholders going to feel when AOL stock tumbles another 10% or 15%? Remember the USA Networks-meets-Lycos deal? The bigger they are, the harder they fall.
E-everything. By the end of 2000, every product or service you can think of will have its own Web site and its own "E." No problem there. It doesn't matter to me whether 97% of the words in Webster's dictionary are now domain names. Gibberish brand names will be very hot this year. Have you visited Google.com? Let's check to see if www.gibberish.com is taken-oh, drat-but there's always E-gibberish. That's the E-ticket.

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