InformationWeek

February 1, 1999

Windows 2000 Delayed: What's At Stake?

By Stuart J. Johnston

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Is software quality really going to the dogs? Read Fred Langa's column:
"The Sorry State Of Desktop Software"

icrosoft acknowledged in late January that the third beta of Windows 2000 is running behind schedule, delaying the beginning of the new system's final test cycle by about a month. So instead of beginning in February or March as planned, it is now set to start in late April.

What is the cause of this, and just how significant is it?

It all depends on whom you ask.

The word for several months has been that Microsoft could probably release the desktop version of Windows 2000--which until late October was known as Windows NT 5.0--almost any time. Indeed, sources involved in the beta testing as well as inside the company have indicated that is true.

But to what purpose? Most of the benefits that users would gain from the desktop version, dubbed Windows 2000 Professional, require Windows 2000 on the server. These benefits include, for instance, the ability to roam from machine to machine, turning each new machine into a carbon copy of your own PC simply by logging in.

And if your PC suddenly and permanently goes south, a technician will be able to bring in a new one with a blank hard disk, plug it into the network, and it will automatically transform itself into your computer, complete with all your files. No work will be lost because it was all saved on the server. The only thing lost is the time it takes to swap out the machine.

But those features will work only if the technologies supporting those functions, primarily Microsoft's IntelliMirror technology, exist on the server. Without Windows 2000 Server, Advanced Server, or Datacenter Server--the three upcoming editions of Windows 2000 Server--most of the benefits of the desktop version won't be available.

That is why Microsoft has no plans to release the desktop edition before the first two server editions, Windows 2000 Server and Advanced Server. The Datacenter version is not due for several months after the other versions ship.

And, according to sources, the server editions are the problem. With as many as 35 million lines of code in the server editions, and much of it all new code, that's a lot of debugging to get done. And with the ripple effect of one bug fix often causing other bugs, that can be a nontrivial, massively time-consuming problem.

Given that a third beta test cycle is likely to run anywhere from six to nine months, we're looking at Windows 2000 shipping as late as the end of the year, and possibly even early in 2000.

For many IT departments, that will be fine. They do not plan to deploy Windows 2000 until sometime next year anyway, even though their planned adoption of the system will be more aggressive than any system adoption we've seen before. (See "High Hopes for the New NT." The really conservative IT shops will take Gartner Group's advice and wait until Microsoft has shipped at least one service pack, delaying deployment to 2001 or later.

So what's the take inside IT departments on a delay? In an InformationWeek Research survey last fall of 300 IT decision-makers with system purchase and deployment responsibilities, 25% said their organizations' deployment plans would suffer if Windows 2000 were delayed significantly beyond mid-1999. (For details, go to: "Behind The Numbers: Expectations Of Win2000".)

Oops. Did I say one in every four organizations would suffer significantly? Ouch. If I'm in one of those three organizations that isn't affected, I'm OK. But I'd hate to be an IT manager in that fourth business, who suddenly has to explain to upper management why the brave new world of the future has been delayed.

That reminds me of a term some Microsofties use internally to refer to the act of challenging Bill Gates on some topic without having thought the issue through thoroughly. They call it a "UCD" or "unwise career decision."

So if you're in that fourth group, my advice is threefold: Update your resume; take a look at other systems options, such as half-way measures, like deploying NT 4.0 or even Linux; and absolutely make sure your upper management is made aware of and understands your predicament.

Railing at Microsoft may make you feel better, but it isn't likely to convince the company to move the ship date of Windows 2000 forward. Believe me, Microsoft executives clearly understand the need to meet such an important deadline. For one thing, they need the sales to keep their balance sheet expanding in the double digits, which the stock market has come to expect.

However, they also understand--at the highest levels of the company--that they don't dare ship any of the Windows 2000 editions with serious bugs. Analysis firm Summit Strategies recently pointed that out.

The industry has come to believe that Microsoft is unstoppable and that nothing is likely to cause it to fail in the long term. If Microsoft ships a buggy version of Windows 2000 the first time out, however, it could forever change the belief that they are infallible. A faltering faith in the underlying mythology is, historically, the first step in the downfall of an empire, whether it's ancient Rome or Microsoft.

So Gates and company have good reason to be constantly paranoid. While their dominance surely won't end tomorrow, a significant failure at this point to provide an extremely stable version of the product upon which Gates has said he is "betting the farm" could cause the empire to rot from within. Without user faith in Microsoft's invincibility, the whole juggernaut could begin to break down. Once begun, regaining lost momentum would be extremely difficult.

Stay tuned.

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