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AuthorITies: Redmond Watch


August 30, 1999

Microsoft's New Vision For The Future

By Stuart J. Johnston

W ith all the attention surrounding Microsoft's landmark antitrust trial and the pending launch of Windows 2000, you may not have noticed a subtle but significant change that took place this summer in Redmond.

At its annual financial analysts' briefing in late July, Microsoft announced it has changed its vision statement. Goodbye to the 25-year-old vision of "a computer on every desk and in every home." Hello to computing "anywhere, any time, on any device."

So they changed their vision statement. While it may sound insignificant, the change signals a huge shift in the company's vision of where it, and computing, are going in the next century. And that is somewhere other than just the desktop and server.

Where would Microsoft like to go tomorrow? Ultimately--and quite literally--inside your head. Smart phones and pagers, TV sets, your car, and electronic books are early candidates, and Microsoft has already made forays into those areas. But how about your toaster, microwave oven, and refrigerator? How about your house, from the garage door opener to the lights and the heating system? Or even your clothes and your shoes?

A number of companies, including Sun Microsystems, are working to provide the networking technologies and protocols to enable our homes to become both automated and integrated. Sun's current pitch is called Jini while Microsoft is touting its Universal Plug and Play technology.

Long-term, Microsoft, Sun, and others see everything in our lives as candidates for computerization and for being networked. The clearest view of how this may shape up in the mid- to long-term may be available by looking at the work under way at major research organizations.

For instance, Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Laboratory for Computer Science is working on its five-year "Oxygen" project, which aims to create a single hand-held device like a smart phone that will let you communicate using voice and handwriting-recognition technologies. At MIT's Media Lab, other researchers are working on technologies that include "wearables"--devices that will actually be worn on the body.

In late July, Microsoft Research (MSR)--the company's eight-year old "basic" research organization, co-sponsored with the University of Washington a conference on the subject of "invisible computing." Researchers from most major universities and companies with research labs including Xerox, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Intel, and Compaq participated.

At a reception following the conference, participants described some of the future visions for invisible computing. In one scenario, microsensors in the spices sprinkled on a pot roast would inform the computer in an oven when the roast is done. The oven's computer would then turn itself off and notify the owner or lower the heat to keep it warm until it's ready to be consumed.

Pretty far out stuff, for sure. But the concept of invisible computing raises interesting issues. First, it underscores the fact that when computing power is everywhere, all the components of what we think of today as a PC don't have to be bundled. The keyboard or some other input device--even a microphone--could be anywhere. The display could be any number of devices, from a flat panel display on your office wall, the TV in the family room, or the display on your microwave oven.

Likewise, there is no reason why you would need to have the processor and memory co-located with either the input device or the display, and thereŭs no reason why the disk drive would need to be co-located with anything else. The processor might be in a closet with the disk drives--something similar to a "headless" server today. Or it could be in your palm-sized PC.

What does this mean for IT? One thing is clear: the definition of information technology and the responsibilities of those who develop and manage it will continue to morph. IT, marketing, sales, database administration, Web development, and other functions will continue to overlap. IT professionals will be charged with sorting out those changes as these new technologies proliferate.

Another thing becoming clear is that the definition of what constitutes an application is also changing, and there will be a lot of hand-wringing over how to pay for that software. A rental fee is the most likely scenario, in my opinion. No wonder Microsoft broached the subject of a "software annuity" a few years ago. And no wonder the company has changed its vision statement.

Computing is becoming "anytime, anywhere, on any device." It may take five, 10, or even 20 years, but it's heading toward us, and Microsoft and others plan to be prepared.


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