InformationWeek
Defining The Business Value Of Technology
July 17, 2000
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Microsoft's Big Bet On "Dot Net"
By Stuart J. Johnston
First off, Microsoft is basing everything on the Extensible Markup Language, an Internet communications standard that Microsoft doesn't own and can't control. Company executives have acknowledged that XMLıa so-called "metalanguage" meant to enable disparate systems to communicate without proprietary protocols or data formatsıis rapidly becoming the lingua franca of the Web.
In fact, XML is a step towards an elusive goal the standards community has been chasing for more than 30 years. With XML, the underlying platform becomes irrelevant. Microsoft, which has always relied on its Windows programming interfaces and the "embrace and extend" model to keep users loyal, is embracing XML as a key element of its future software services architecture.
Microsoft executives say they envision a future in which the company is no longer selling software, per se. Instead, it will sell services that exist out in the network "cloud." The user shouldn't care how things get done inside the cloud or where things are stored--only that there's a simple way to connect, to get to information, and to get things done.
The first three Microsoft services will be storage, that is, storing all of a user's files and delivering them "anytime, anywhere, on any device"; authentication," using a future version of Microsoft's Passport electronic wallet technology to provide core authentication services; and notification, providing users with all kinds of messaging services, appropriate to whatever device the user has at hand. Microsoft Office will also become a service delivered over the Internet. Third parties will provide other services as well, Microsoft says.
Microsoft will figure out some way to bill users for its services, based on a usage model or a monthly fee. This is a really risky step--easily as risky as Microsoft's bet back in 1989 to walk away from IBM in favor of Windows. Whether customers will go for this and be willing to pay for it, and whether enough of Microsoft's third-party developers will buy into it are all critical issues and complete unknowns.
Still, many industry observers have said for years that if Microsoft really wanted to innovate, it had to sever its desktop roots. Microsoft must destroy the very thing that enables it to dominate the desktop in order to succeed on the Internet. A first step would be to toss the Windows look and feel for a more Web-like user interface. In fact, that's part of .Net. Gone is the Windows toolbar. While it's true the entire industry is looking at these issues, the real point is that regardless of whether Microsoft wins or loses its antitrust appeal, a geologic shift has begun. The old regime is being torn down and a new one created. Instead of steadfast foot-dragging, Microsoft execs apparently have decided to surf the wave.
Microsoft also just unveiled a new programming language, called C# (pronounced "C-sharp"). The idea is to produce the most competitive programming environment for the new frontier. However, Java is finally reaching the point where the "write once-run anywhere" promise seems to be getting somewhere, so unless Microsoft can get C# ported to other platforms or can provide such a superior programming environment that developers are drawn to it, C# may fizzle. Yet, Microsoft has agreed to hand over control of C# to the European Computer Manufacturers Association, a 40-year-old standards organization--something Sun has been unwilling to do with Java.
Finally, Microsoft recently collaborated with IBM, Lotus, and others to develop another proposed standard. The Simple Object Access Protocol (Soap) is an XML-based means of letting one program interact with another over the Internet with no regard to what platform the programs at either end run on. While platform-agnostic remote procedure calls sound like a no-brainer, it hasn't been easy to do up until now. IBM has heartily embraced Soap, and even Microsoft archrival Sun grudgingly endorsed it.
The impact of all of these moves is migration towards a world where Microsoft can't dominate by default. Perhaps recognizing that its days as the de facto big fish are numbered, the company seems to have realized it must learn to compete in an ocean where it's better to standardize to survive. Will it succeed? Frankly, it was a lot easier to predict the explosive success of Windows 3.0 back in mid-1989, a year before it shipped, than it is to call this one. I'm sure there are other surprises coming soon. However, if Microsoft proves insincere, I'm sure we'll know soon enough because, at the first sign of the old Microsoft, there will be plenty of canaries ready to sing.
Stuart J. Johnston has covered Microsoft for more than 12 years. He can be reached at stuartj@halcyon.com.
here are plenty of reasons to wonder whether Microsoft's recent .Net (pronounced "Dot Net") initiative, announced in late June, isn't just the company's latest attempt to maintain its Windows hegemony. Initiatives in the past often turned out to be moves to further feather the corporate nest. This time, though, it looks like Microsoft may really make the effort to compete in the Internet economy on the Internet's termsıbecause it has to.
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