InformationWeek
Defining The Business Value Of Technology
November 2, 1998
Behind The Numbers:
Expectations Of Win2000
emember how American business largely ignored Microsoft Windows until version 3.1 was released back in 1992? Until then, graphical shells built on MS-DOS were considered flaky at best, especially by programmers. Windows 2000 (formerly known as Windows NT 5.0), both workstation and server versions, is expected to be the operating system that unites industrial-strength power with the mainstream usability of Windows 98.The early evidence suggests that corporate America eagerly wants Windows 2000 to succeed. In a survey released this week by InformationWeek and other CMP Media Inc. publications, nearly seven in 10 IT managers with operating-system purchasing authority say their organizations intend to beta test and evaluate Windows NT 5.0. All 300 IT managers who completed the survey are either currently evaluating Windows 2000 Professional (formerly NT Workstation 5.0) or Server, or are planning to do so.
In all, 90% of IT managers say the critical success factor in operating-system purchasing decisions is reliability. Performance and ease of administration also are crucial factors.
Adoption of Windows 2000 Professional is not likely to be tied to its cost per end user, according to the survey respondents. Fewer than half of the IT managers surveyed indicate that cost will be a key evaluative factor in their organization's Windows 2000 deployment decision.
Surprisingly, there is no significant difference in Windows 2000 Server adoption plans at sites where the most widely deployed network operating systems are NetWare, Unix, or Windows NT 4. One possible explanation for this is that many application software vendors may be writing upgrades to Windows NT Server first.
How is the beta-test period progressing? Nearly two-thirds of the survey respondents indicate they plan to widely adopt Windows 2000 workstation or server versions within one year of their release. Will Windows 2000 live up to everyone's high expectations? Let us know at the address below.
Rusty Weston
Managing Editor/ Research
rweston@cmp.com
This week in Behind The Numbers:
| The Beta Candidate | IT Managers Can Wait | Indirect Route | No Hurry For Win2000 Workstations |
| Some Delays Expected | The Paradox Of W2K | Key Server Apps |
The Beta Candidate
Microsoft's position with Windows 2000 is not unlike an incumbent politician who's way ahead in the polls and wishes the election could be held today. Remarkably, 64% of NT 5 workstation beta testers say their organizations plan to widely deploy it in its first year of release.
Questions loom about when it will be released and which features will be included or added to the operating system. But that's not unusual for any operating system still in development and beta testing. It's still early, but given the strong interest in these products, staff training and certification is likely to become an issue next year.
IT Managers Can Wait
There's a lot of sport in trying to guess just when "vaporware"--products announced many months or even years before they hit the market--will turn into something available for purchase.
There's no doubt Windows 2000 will be available sometime soon--because Microsoft is counting so heavily on it for a major revenue boost. However, it appears that a further delay is taken for granted by IT managers. That's because fewer than 25% of those testing Windows 2000 Professional say that postponement in the shipping date beyond mid-1999 would negatively affect their deployment plans.
Indirect Route
Customers sometimes spoil a vendor's plans. Though it hasn't spelled out its strategy in so many words, Microsoft appears to think most business users of Windows 95 will migrate to Windows 2000 Professional by the year 2000.
But only about half of IT managers surveyed will take that route. Almost one-third plan to take an interim step, making Windows 98 or Windows NT 4 Workstation their most widely deployed desktop operating system. Another 16% have no plans to upgrade by 2000, preferring to stick with what they've got--Windows 95, which will be five years old by then.
No Hurry For Win2000 Workstations
Attention Microsoft accountants: Don't count your sales before they're made. There's not a lot of money earmarked for Windows 2000 Professional purchases in 1999 by IT managers. Only 51% of those evaluating the software were willing or able to specify an actual dollar amount. Another 29% say there's nothing in their 1999 budgets, and 20% say they're not sure.
Those figures may reflect skepticism that Windows 2000 will be commercially viable or available next year. And even at the sites that intend to purchase Windows 2000 workstation next year, nearly three in five expect to spend less than $50,000.
Some Delays Expected
It appears that expectations for Windows 2000 Server among IT managers are about the same as for the software's workstation version. In other words, it's eagerly awaited, but could be subject to delay.
That's probably why three-quarters of the sites surveyed say that if Microsoft postpones the delivery date for Windows 2000 Server beyond mid-1999, the delay won't have a huge impact on their deployment plans. Of course, it's also possible to look at those numbers in a different way: One-quarter of the sites are counting very heavily on the timely arrival of Windows 2000 Server.
The Paradox Of W2K
There's lots of enthusiasm for Windows 2000 among IT managers. Remarkably, 84% of the sites evaluating Windows 2000 Server plan to widely deploy it--and 59% say they'll do so within the next 12 months.
Yet in an apparent paradox, 31% report they have no money set aside for the server in their 1999 budget. Perhaps they question whether it will be ready in time? Even among those who have squirreled aside some money for Windows 2000 Server upgrades, the amount isn't huge. About two-thirds of those companies plan to spend less than $50,000 in 1999.
Key Server Apps
Although Windows 2000 Server seems robust enough to handle most applications flawlessly, IT managers planning to employ the software have a couple key uses in mind. Nearly 90% say they'll deploy it to support messaging or E-mail, while more than 80% plan to use it for Web hosting and systems or network management.
On the other hand, it looks like it will take Windows 2000 Server a bit longer to supplant other operating systems as the backbone for intensive graphics or engineering uses--and particularly for manufacturing resource applications. Those were mentioned far less frequently as planned uses.
--John Eckhouse
Back to Business Intelligence
Send Us Your Feedback
Top of the Page
Featured Microsite
