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Four Reasons I Think Google May Try To Become A Carrier In India

AT&T this week applied for a license to offer wireless service in India. The move is AT&T's first step toward becoming a carrier in one of the fastest growing wireless markets. Will Google follow in AT&T's footsteps?

Here is a look at AT&T's push into the Indian wireless market:

AT&T's application is one of hundreds expected to be received by regulators for a coming spectrum allocation, and it is unclear whether regulators will approve it. Yesterday was the deadline for applications, according to AT&T. Indian regulators couldn't be reached for comment.

After completing more than a dozen domestic acquisitions since 1990, AT&T is turning its attention overseas. Chief Executive Randall Stephenson has said he would like to roll out wireless service in India, which analysts expect will have 500 million cell phone subscribers by the end of the decade, more than double the current number.

It's obvious AT&T will not be alone its quest to enter the Indian wireless market. Vodafone already is making a big push in India's wireless market and I expect other wireless carriers from outside India to follow.

So if all these other companies are joining India's wireless party, why not Google?

Now, this is just speculation on my part (at least for now), but if Google is threatening to buy spectrum in the U.S., why would it not try to gain access to India's wireless market as well? I mean, in the grander scheme of things, India will likely have as much say, if not more, over the future of the mobile Web than the U.S.

Here are four reasons why I think Google might just try to follow AT&T's and Vodafone's lead.

1. Google sees its future in mobility.
Google has repeatedly said that it sees its future on mobile devices. Experts agree that the smartphone, and not the PC, is the future of the Internet. What better way to control the future of the Internet than to get a foothold in India?

2. Google needs the mobile Web to be open in every country.
The real reason Google is trying to bid on spectrum in the U.S. is it needs to push the mobile Web more open. I still don't think that Google wants to be a carrier per se, but I do think Google will pursue the nuclear option if that's what it takes. If Google is willing to go there in the United States, why not in India or any other important market?

3. Google already is in India's wireless market.
Google signed a deal with Indian carrier Airtel in August. Here's a look at that deal:

Today, Airtel announced that the two companies will bring Google apps -- including Google Search, Gmail, Google Talk, and Google Docs & Spreadsheets -- to the service provider's wireline broadband customers. But in the future, the two plan to offer similar apps on mobile phones as well, Business Standard reports.

"Today's alliance provides an platform for Airtel users to enjoy the best possible online experience with customized access to Google's evolving suite of innovative products," said Shailesh Rao, managing director for Google India, referring to the wireline deal. But then he added that the alliance would soon push Google apps onto Airtel mobile devices.

And let's not forget that at the end of August rumors circulated that Google was planning to launch the gPhone in India. If Google is already launching mobile apps and possibly planning to launch the gPhone, why not take the final plunge and enter the market as a service provider? Or at least work to get the rights to be a service provider and use that clout to make sure that its devices and apps run on all carrier networks?

4. By gaining the rights to offer wireless service, Google can better dictate the evolution of India's wireless market.
OK, so this is sort of a recapitulation of the first two reasons, but I think it's worth pointing out. Google doesn't even have to launch wireless service in India. In fact, it doesn't even have to enter the market. All it has to do is go through the motions of getting a license and it can push India's wireless market in the direction it wants to. How? By sheer threat of force.

What do you think? Do you think Google will try to enter India as a wireless service provider? Will they even make rumblings in this direction? Or is this just a crazy idea? Please share your thoughts.

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