First, CIO turnover will increase. Then stars will emerge. Demonstrating shareholder value, taking responsibility for international business processes, and taking ownership of the ROI of all technology investments across the enterprise are the keys.Gary Baney is the CEO of a small, offshore, custom-development shop called Boundless Flight. He's also a friend, a helluva smart guy, and something of a technology management guru, given to penetrating, if perhaps random, pronouncements.

Baney is an IT veteran, having served as VP of IT at KeyBank, and as chief technology officer of Flashline, a component software vendor acquired last year by BEA Systems. He's also taught IT engineering at Case Western Reserve University.

I got an e-mail from him today (as part of a string) that contained these "Thoughts for the day." I had to share them.

>> CIOs are feeling INCREASING heat from boards for building shareholder value. Turnover rates to increase dramatically, with excellence producing a new generation of superstars. Star CIOs soon to hit the ranks of star athletes.

>> Global expansion bringing tremendous increase to the importance of IT infrastructure and cross-cultural business processes. IT to become a practical realization of business process management -- where the rubber meets the road. Star IT managers to become effective international business-process evangelists.

>> The previous generation of "smart" CIOs got the line-of-business managers to determine the ROI on LOB-specific technology investments. CIOs only owned the "ROI" on infrastructure; typically measured in continual cost reduction. The new generation of smart CIOs will own and DRIVE the ROI for all technology investment. The closer they are to the value determination, the brighter their future ... if they are successful!

Some meaty analysis here to chew on. What do you think? Are we witnessing the birth of the superstar CIO? Can anyone live up to these ambitious responsibilities? And should you contact a sports agent to negotiate your next contract for you?