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The Casual Fan's Guide To March Madness Success

Need some guidance in filling out your brackets for the NCAA men's college basketball tournament? Here are a few off-the-cuff tips, based on lessons learned from 20 years of tournament pool experience. Warning: While I've managed to win a few pools in my day, I've also flamed out early with a high-risk strategy. One year I correctly picked all four teams in the Final Four -- only to finish second. For a chance to win a 42-inch plasma TV, fill out the InformationWeek Hoops Challenge brackets by going to CBS Sportsline here, and then signing up for the InformationWeek Bracket here using the password biztech.

Now for those tips:

• Don't be a slave to the seedings. True, the early rounds will go mostly according to form, and the country's overall No. 1 ranked team (North Carolina) has a decent shot at winning the tournament (witness Florida last year). But it's very rare that the four No. 1 seeds from each national region march to the Final Four. Take some risks. Two of ESPN's bracket analysts picked all four No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four, while another picked three No. 1s and one No. 2. Where's the fun in that? If you go that comfy route, count on scoring about the same as loads of other people in your pool. And losing. The winners are generally those who can identify some key upsets.

• Go with the hot hands. Conference tournament champions, especially the major-conference champs (Pittsburgh, North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas, Wisconsin), have proved they're battle tested and ready for the Big Dance. Likewise, highly seeded teams that bowed out of their conference tourneys prematurely (Duke, Tennessee, Xavier) aren't as likely to go deep into the NCAA tourney.

• Who's getting healthy? Some teams' seedings may be artificially low because of early-season injuries. Think 4 seed Pittsburgh, winner of the Big East Conference tourney, and 14 seed Georgia, winner of the SEC tourney.

• Strength of schedule matters. So what if a team is 28-5 -- if it hasn't beaten a team of any consequence, it's likely to get overwhelmed in the tourney.

• Go with balance over the stud factor. If a team isn't much deeper than one star player, then it won't go much past the first two rounds. Think Kansas State.

• Don't go with your heart. Resist the temptation to pick your alma mater or teams from your state, region, or favorite conference.

My high-risk Final Four picks: Kansas (1), Louisville (3), Pittsburgh (4), and UCLA (1). Kansas vs. Pittsburgh in the final, with Kansas as national champion.

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