Commentary
Analyst: Don't Buy iPhone 2.0
It's hard to argue with some of the advice given by Rob Enderle, principal analyst with Enderle Group, about iPhone 2.0. In short, he says, "Wait a little while before running out to get one." Thanks, Rob, but would anyone make a similar comment about any other phone? I doubt it.It's hard to argue with some of the advice given by Rob Enderle, principal analyst with Enderle Group, about iPhone 2.0. In short, he says, "Wait a little while before running out to get one." Thanks, Rob, but would anyone make a similar comment about any other phone? I doubt it.A noted mobile analyst, Mr. Enderle offers some solid points to consider in a column he wrote for RCR News: better competition, activation issues, possible price drops, third-party software breakage, initial bugginess, and more. All of these reflect what happened with the roll-out of the initial iPhone, which experienced some of the aforementioned.
A year ago, the iPhone had no real competition when it came to touch-enabled devices. Now, there are alternatives from companies such as Samsung, HTC, and LG. Other companies (RIM and Nokia) are said to have touch-based devices in the works. Reports suggest that both RIM and Nokia will have their own touch phones available by the end of the summer. If you prefer BlackBerry OS and S60 to what Apple has, these may by worth waiting for.
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But what I find most interesting about Enderle's column is that most of the issues he brings up are computer-specific, not phone specific.
Take initial bugginess, for example. A lot of new products -- especially those rushed to market -- have some small issues that weren't fully worked out during the engineering process and need to be fixed with a software or firmware update. We saw this with Apple's Leopard operating system last fall. Once people started upgrading from 10.4.x to 10.5, problems cropped up. Apple issued 10.5.1 in response about a month later. Similar advice was given about Vista: Let others deal with the pain first (and boy, did they ever).
Then there's the new hardware angle. Whenever Apple redesigns something, such as its MacBooks, there are those that run out and upgrade right away, and there are those who wait until a few months pass and a second wave of products becomes available. They wait for the early adopters to report any issues in the first wave of new hardware and refuse to buy until the issues are addressed by Apple.
Has anyone ever heard someone say about a new BlackBerry phone: "Don't buy it right away, it'll be buggy"? I think not. With the new BlackBerry Bold announced last week, there is a major issue to consider before buying it: A refreshed version of the UI. Don't you think it might be buggy? Don't you think early adopters might feel some pain if the price drops in a month or two? Shouldn't enterprises wait before adopting it? I haven't heard such comments from analysts.
What about the phones from Samsung and LG? When the LG Voyager was first launched, it had terrible firmware problems. Verizon and LG has to issue several firmware updates within the first month the phone was on the market. I don't remember reading mass media news stories about this issue like those reporting the iPhone ibricking incidents. And no one certainly suggested ahead of time that people wait to get one.
So why the cautionary advice about the iPhone? Because it is more computer than phone. Computers bring with them more complexity, more issues, more places for things to go "wrong".
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