Topics: Full Nelson

I Think, I Video, I Am

Posted by Fritz Nelson, May 28, 2008 01:52 AM

In a cover story for InformationWeek next week, I will say the following (technically I've already said it, you just haven't read it yet; technically, I'm paraphrasing myself, which may be a form of plagiarism, but I don't know): I think Web Video is undergoing a massive upheaval today. Right now. Before our eyes. I think in two years, the lines between what we watch on the Web and what we watch on television will cease to blur. I think all video will soon be delivered over the Internet. I think it's already happening. I think we all know it.

I think we are ready. I think many will resist, not wanting to let go of an era, a comfort, a couch. I think the content players have already embraced it (see ABC.COM, Hulu, CBS Interactive, and others). I think the cable companies haven't (I think I'll write more on this in a subsequent post). I think key ingredients include Internet-ready TVs, adequate programming search capabilities, and niche programming. I think all of this exists, but I don't think it's been perfected. I think Internet-only shows like Quarterlife are just the beginning.

I think companies like Joost and Revision3 and Hulu are interesting. I think some of them may fail. I know that most revolutions come with a few dead bodies; I think it's almost a prerequisite.

I think the entire television experience will be interactive and time-shifted and device independent. I think advertising will still be as prevalent as always. I suspect it may even be more meaningful, because it will be more targeted toward your needs and desires. I think that's the inevitable and inherent beauty of the Internet. I don't think you will mind.

I think this because we have seen the story before: Internet sets ideas free; Internet changes the economics of (insert name of industry); Internet hastens the pace of adoption; Internet is the ultimate arbiter of what works and what doesn't. I think I believe this deep in my soul. Many people think that's a bad thing; I think it's just reality (but not like a reality show ... that's different; at least I think so).

I don't think I'm alone. I think you should watch the video above.

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