Whoa. Microsoft is getting a little bit ahead of itself here. It has yet to contend with the entrance of Android in the mobile market, but it has declared that it will attain some 40% of the global smartphone market in just four years. Microsoft, dare I ask what you've been smoking?According to Eddie Wu, managing director of Microsoft ODM embedded devices, Asia, the Windows Mobile platform will reach 40% of the global smartphone market by the summer of 2012. Taiwan's DigiTimes reports, "A total of 50 device makers, including Motorola, Sony Ericsson, Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, High Tech Computer (HTC), Asustek Computer, Palm, and Hewlett-Packard have launched more than 140 Windows Mobile-based products for use by 160 mobile operators. Microsoft currently focuses its efforts on promoting the Windows Mobile 6.1 operating system (OS) and the company has no plans to launch Windows Mobile 7 until 2009."

I've seen some screen shots and read some detailed information about what Windows Mobile 7 will be like (cough, cough, iPhone rip-off, cough, cough). There's no doubt that the smartphone platform will be leaps and bounds better than the recently refreshed WinMo 6.1. But 40% market share in just four years? I don't think so. There are three major reasons why: Android, iPhone, S60.

As it stands, Nokia's Symbian-based S60 holds somewhere close to three-quarters of the worldwide share of smartphones. Microsoft will have to eat into that percentage by a large amount, and I just don't see that happening. It's true that Windows Mobile is one of the two dominant smartphone platforms in the United States, but markets outside of the U.S. aren't adopting WinMo in droves. They seem to be quite happy with Nokia's powerful S60 platform.

Then there's Android to consider. The platform isn't off the ground yet, but if it is all Google has hyped it to be, it could become a competitive force to reckon with. The very nature of its openness and the excitement of the developer community to create new and useful applications for it is already making waves. The only question I'd pose here is, where exactly will Android's user base come from? Will they be converts from S60, iPhone, WinMo, BlackBerry OS, or Palm OS? Which smartphone platform Android steals from will drastically effect the future market share of all smartphone platforms.

Of course we have to mention the iPhone. Sales of the iPhone have surpassed all other smartphone platforms in the United States since its debut last year. While it hasn't had much traction outside the U.S. (yet), that could all change with the introduction of iPhone 2.0 and the 3G iPhone.

I'll also throw in RIM's BlackBerry OS for good measure. This platform has an enormous user base in the United States, and a small grip on enterprise users outside the U.S., as well. With devices such as the recently announced Bold in the product pipe, it's going to remain a force in the smartphone market.

Considering this set of competitors, I don't think Microsoft has a snowball's chance in hell of reaching 40% of the global market for smartphones. Not in four years, not ever.