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Now That Google Has Won...

The collapse of Microsoft's bid to acquire Yahoo has prompted Google watchers to ponder whether Google's dominance of search advertising poses any dangers for the Internet.

"Should it now be a cause for alarm that one company is in a position to control so much of the lifeblood of the Internet?" asked Financial Times writer Richard Waters in a May 12 article.

To hammer home the fear that drove Microsoft to acquire Yahoo in the first place, Silicon Alley Insider writer Henry Blodget asserted, " By this time next year, Google's search business will be larger and more profitable than the most profitable and legendary monopoly in history -- Microsoft Windows."

On Wednesday, the validity of such concerns was underscored by search market metrics released by Hitwise. "Google accounted for 67.90% of all U.S. searches in the four weeks ending April 26, 2008. Yahoo Search, MSN Search, and Ask.com each received 20.28%, 6.26% and 4.17%, respectively," Hitwise said.

For Google, that represents another market share increase. For Yahoo, Microsoft, and Ask, those numbers represent another decline. The biggest search share decline in the past 12 months belongs to Microsoft, or so it appears from a chart posted by Danny Sullivan over at Search Engine Land.

In answer to Waters' question, yes, it is cause for alarm, but also for celebration.

Google is alarming in the same way that Wal-Mart is alarming: It forces competitors to change.

Microsoft may not want to give up on the idea of selling word processing software to people for hundreds of dollars every few years, but Google, by making a free online alternative available, demonstrates the absurdity of the shrink-wrapped software business model. Sooner or later, Microsoft will have to come to terms with the fact that its golden goose has a terminal condition.

To date, Google has been restrained with its power. It has not, for example, floated ideas like abandoning network neutrality, as certain telecom companies have. In that respect, Google is less alarming than, say, AT&T.

But Google poses a threat by virtue of its extreme mobility, which is to say that it can enter information markets very quickly. Consider reports that Google has added a real estate search option to Google Maps. Suddenly, Google has become a potential competitor to Zillow.com.

If you run an Internet site or software company, that scenario has to be at least a bit alarming.

At the same time, today's open ecosystem has room for Google competitors. Microsoft will be a better one, five years from now, when Ray Ozzie's vision for the company becomes more fully realized. Yahoo may be one, if corporate raiders don't dismember it first. And maybe MySpace or Facebook will make their platform plays work. (Don't count Apple out, either.)

Until Google starts acting like a monopoly and abuses its market power, hold off on the alarm bells. Instead, celebrate the expanding information ecosystem that is emerging and try to bring great products to market.

YouTube beat Google Video, so it can be done (even if Google did end up buying YouTube to undo its defeat.)

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