I like XP, I really do. It's got a lot of life in it, and runs on systems where Vista can't even fit. But Taiwan's announcement of an antitrust investigation into Microsoft's retirement of XP is just crazy.

Let's review where XP stands. Although you can't buy a retail license of XP as of June 30, you can buy Vista Business or Vista Ultimate licenses and exercise the XP downgrade rights. Some major OEMs like Dell are are even listening to their customers and doing the downgrade at the factory. So although XP isn't as easy to get or as cheap as it once was, it's still available.

As for support, Microsoft will be providing XP security patches until 2014. There is no hurry for current XP users, or even new users, to rush to Vista if it's inconvenient or impossible due to training, deployment, software, or hardware issues. Given the industry's slow uptake on Vista, it would not surprise me for Microsoft to extend that 2014 date if significant numbers of business users still need a year or two to make a transition.

So the first argument against Taiwan's investigation is that XP is neither unavailable nor unsupported. The second is that Microsoft will be committing corporate suicide if it doesn't listen to its customers. The hubris that produced Microsoft's initial launch and marketing plans for Vista has subsided as customers saw Vista's initial problems and pushed back hard. Eighteen months later, Vista hasn't even cracked the 10% level in corporate America. Windows 7 will either reflect the lessons Microsoft learned from Vista or it will mark the beginning of a very ugly decline for the company.

I don't think I'm being too alarmist. If Windows 7 launches in 2010 and is a Vista-class disappointment, many companies will use their remaining four years of XP support to shop for Linux or Mac solutions. The market will deliver a punishment much worse than anything Taiwan could administer.