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Analyst Predicts 400,000 Android Handsets Sold By End Of 2008

Strategy Analytics has been doing some number crunching. According to its computations, Android will grab 4% of the market for smartphones in the United States during the fourth quarter of 2008. That amounts to some 400,000 units sold. What do you think, is that bullish or bearish?

"We forecast 10.5 million smartphones to be sold in the U.S.during Q4 2008," said Neil Mawston, director of wireless device strategies at Strategy Analytics. That's the total market for smartphones, including BlackBerrys, Treos, Windows Mobile devices, Symbian phones, and the iPhone. Despite the buzz building around Android, it has some stiff -- and more experienced -- competition already hunkered down in the trenches.

Mawston continues, "We estimate smartphones with Google's Android operating system, led by HTC of Taiwan, will reach 0.4 million units in the quarter, for a 4% market share. Android is a relatively late entrant and it will join an increasingly crowded market."

HTC -- maker of the first Android handset -- has put up some big smartphone numbers in the past. Its original Touch device sold well over 1 million units. It is a seasoned performer and has solid partners in Google and T-Mobile.

But who's going to buy Android? Consumers? Mobile professionals? Geeks? There will certainly be a lot of curiosity from within the industry. I would venture a guess that many tech writers and analysts will spend some good time with the device, as will others with a general interest in developing for the platform.

How are T-Mobile, HTC, and Google going to market it, though? Consumers don't want to buy a "platform." They want to buy a device that does the things they need/want it to do. It remains to be seen exactly what features -- aka selling points -- Android will come with.

We know that the phone will have a touch screen, will have GPS, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and a litany of standard smartphone features. None of these specs set it apart from other smartphones.

Chris Ambrosio, executive director at Strategy Analytics, said, "Google has the brand power in the USA to make a big impact at launch. The main issue will be operator subsidies. As seen with the iPhone and smart devices in general, retail prices need to be well below $200 to be competitive. Longer-term success will, of course, rest on Android vendor ability to create designs with wow factor and an intuitive user-interface. Google will do its part to drive growth, and we expect Android will eventually offer a compelling range of mobile applications emphasizing Google's online assets, such as advertising, mapping, and search."

Ambrosio is right-on about the price point and the "wow factor." Android is going to need both to stand out in the crowded field of smartphones.

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