So goes some of the punditry I've heard from various quarters. I mentioned the Guardian's "Linux is washed up" take on the issue, and now Ian Lamont at the Industry Standard put it this way: Windows 7 will make Linux downright irrelevant on netbooks.

I'm still of the feeling that the netbook market is so nascent that it's way too early to be doomsaying, but Ian scores some points:

The attraction of converting an old laptop to Ubuntu or some other distro fades when the cost of getting a brand-new Windows netbook is so cheap. ... Considering it's now possible to get a new, Internet-ready netbook with Windows XP for just $350, it's safe to say many people will simply not bother with the hassles associated with putting Linux on an old laptop.

That $350 pricetag isn't fixed, either. Serious talk of the cost dropping to $250 or -- finally! -- all the way down to $99 is still in the air.

The biggest reasons Linux remains attractive for netbook makers are twofold: 1) no licensing costs for the software itself (especially now that you have netbook-specific distros, with a good deal of the work already done for you), and 2) a far greater degree of malleability than with Windows.

But both of these things may well come under serious fire. If Microsoft's pricing model for Windows 7 comes down far enough that it doesn't add significantly to the cost of a $150 machine, then that's one advantage out the window. And if 7's vaunted stripped-down design makes it possible for OEMs to configure it that much more flexibly, then that's another blow to Linux. The other thing about malleability is that it doesn't matter how flexible Linux is if it's in the hands of people who can't think of anything creative or truly distinguished to do with it.

Still, I can think of a couple of ways a netbook Linux distribution can distinguish itself from a similar Windows product. One, use the "instant-on" tech from companies like Splashtop in as many creative ways as possible (how about, for instance, an instant-on Wi-Fi signal checker?). Two, partner with companies to make netbooks into media outlets -- for example, imagine a netbook that's also a successor to Amazon's Kindle, with a connection to that company's stock of digital reading matter.

In short, the netbook makers, and netbook Linux distribution makers, need to think one and two and maybe even three steps ahead of not just Microsoft but the rest of the consumer-computing industry.

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