It's inevitable. With Microsoft's showcasing of Windows 7's pre-beta edition at PDC, the Boys From Redmond have thrown down a gauntlet to the Linux community that's been angling to take over the netbook market (and then maybe the desktop). Anything you can do, they say, we can do better.

The conventional wisdom: 7 may be Microsoft's last chance to get it right all the way down the line, before Linux starts to eat heavily into their desktop, notebook, netbook and phone device market share. Throughout 2008, there's been constant talk on the Linux side about this being the time to capitalize on the king-sized disappointment that has been Vista (whether perceived or actual), and if the desktop wasn't the place to do that, then there are plenty of other places where Linux can thrive.

I don't have the Windows 7 bits on hand, myself, but I know that one of the first things I plan to do once I get them -- it's a "when", not an "if" -- is to throw it onto the same hardware as my various Linux installations and see how things behave, all the way from the first betas to the gold master. This isn't just a matter of things like Linux distros including clones of Microsoft's own desktop behaviors; I don't doubt they can do such things.

What matters is whether or not the Linux folks can tie together all of the things they have created into an environment that makes people productive -- something that isn't just about freedom and choice for their own sake but using the assets granted by freedom and choice. I want to see them build something better, not just recapitulate what already exists -- and that's precisely what Microsoft is trying to do on their own territory as well. Case in point: one of the constant selling points for Linux is it security and safety, but Vista's track record in that regard is narrowing the gap. On the other hand, the instant-on technologies offered by Splashtop and their ilk offer something that Microsoft might be hard-pressed to approach.

Here is how I see the showdown playing out. I don't see total victory for either side. No version of Linux I've seen stands ready to kick Microsoft off the desktop, for a variety of reasons (applications, mainly). That said, I do see Linux, along with a strong complement of open source apps, showing up in far more ways -- and far more visible ones -- than ever before. What's less clear is whether or not Linux will be able to keep the territory it stakes out in that fashion, or cede it to a Windows that is designed from the inside out to beat it at its own game.

I've said before that Linux doesn't have to "win" to be a success. It just has to stand out by dint of its own strengths -- which need to be constantly evaluated and expanded on. It's no longer safe to say that Linux's protean nature will always allow it to find a home.