Google's announcement of Chrome OS has created a lot of excitement, and of course lots of speculation about what Microsoft will do. Here's my speculation about one thing that Microsoft won't do: Significantly change Windows any time soon.Google says that Chrome OS is starting with a clean slate, using a minimal window manager and the Chrome browser on top of a Linux kernel. Simplicity means Chrome OS won't require a lot of resources, perform well on minimal hardware, and should be easier to secure. However, Chrome OS is also unlikely to have the broad set of features you'd find in Windows, Apple OS X, or even a complete Linux distribution like Ubuntu. The feature set is basically that of HTML5. Even the announcement describes it simply: "The software architecture is simple - Google Chrome running within a new windowing system on top of a Linux kernel. For application developers, the web is the platform."

Chrome OS is intended, at least initially, to find a home on netbooks. Microsoft is already offering Windows 7 Starter Edition at a very low price to OEMs, but only for low-priced netbooks. This seems anti-competive to me -- Microsoft shouldn't be able to dictate where Starter Edition is used. If they can get away with it, though, aggressive pricing for Starter Edition may be all they need to do to keep Google from gaining a foothold.

Anyway, haven't we already seen this movie? Linux was the primary OS of the early netbooks, before Microsoft brought back XP at a bargain-basement price. Now, nary a netbook runs Linux. Users seem to really want Windows so they can run their familiar Windows software. If anyone can make a Windows alternative work, though, it would be Google. The interface would be a web browser; the applications would be GMail, Google Docs, Google Chat, Google Calendar, etc.

If Google manages to redefine the "platform" as HTML5, even if it takes a decade, Microsoft will be at a big disadvantage. Microsoft can of course build great HTML5 support into Internet Explorer, but I don't see them embracing pure HTML5 as a development platform. Instead, they're more likely to push HTML developers to incorporate Microsoft's proprietary technologies like Silverlight and .NET to ensure that the company's tools and platforms will be cut in for a piece of the action. That, combined with the large number of Windows applications -- and more importantly, Windows users -- will make it tough for Google to gain a foothold.