Gartner is predicting that the number one smartphone platform will be Android by 2012, surpassing the iPhone. Can the platform, which is currently only ahead of WebOS in market share, overtake its rivals in just three years?Well, actually Nokia's Symbian platform will still be number one but that is only because they put that on so many basic phones, many of which are viewed as little more than feature phones. While I guess Symbian is technically a smartphone, I don't see it quite that way as so many Nokia users never install a third party app or are even aware you can do so.

According to MoDaCo, RIM's Blackberry would take up a position somewhere ahead the iPhone. Windows Mobile and Palm's WebOS aren't even mentioned.

While I agree that Google's Android system is poised for growth, I think it is a bit early to be claiming victory. As handset makers tweak the operating system to suit their needs, they run the risk of fragmenting the platform. This will make it hard for developers to make their programs run consistently on all Android phones. I've already heard some rumblings that many Android apps won't run correctly on the HTC Tattoo because of the screen resolution.

Microsoft went through this years ago before developing APIs that made it easier to design apps. Palm also went through this with their PalmOS. Every new device caused some programs to have to be tweaked for that device specifically - especially input panel replacements.

I would never underestimate Google. So much of what they touch turns into a raging success when they put the effort behind it, and they seem to be doing so with Android. I still think it is too early to claim Android will go from virtually no market share today to surpass all of the other players. We'll have to wait and see how the platform holds its own in the next few months. WebOS is just getting started, Windows Mobile 7 is just around the corner and Apple won't be sitting still.