Here's a recap of what I predicted then and an update of how I see those trends unfolding now.
1. Cloud technologies will converge.
The cloud will continue to forge a massive convergence of technologies -- similar to the evolution of the cellphone to the smartphone. The lines between platform-as-a-service (PaaS) and cloud services brokerages will blur into a conceptual operating system for the "Web as a platform" -- providing tools to allow users to take advantage of multiple cloud solutions at once, and bringing the cloud closer to the end user in more meaningful ways.
Update: As the cloud computing marketplace continues to rapidly evolve and grow, the focus for buyers is shifting from software-as-a-service (SaaS) to infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS). There is also a heightened awareness about choices around building, buying or leasing IT infrastructure services. For government agencies, this will lead to more options and opportunities, and will drive the need for additional analysis and a deeper understanding of how cloud computing technologies can be used to improve mission performance.
[ Do you have a Plan B? Learn Lessons From A Failed Federal IT Project. ]
2. Custom software will hit the cloud.
For years, everyone looking at cloud computing has been talking about the "low-hanging fruit" of commodity email and infrastructure. But non-commodity custom software is beginning to move to the cloud in a meaningful manner. As of this year, PaaS and other cloud technologies have reached a maturity level that allows developers and integrators to build highly customized, complex offerings on the cloud.
Update: While PaaS technology continues to rapidly mature, the marketplace is still learning how to take the PaaS concept and extend it into the custom application development arena. The evolution of "optimal DevOps" business models and other operating models may push widespread adoption into next year. This trend will drive the adoption of PaaS by federal system integrators. Vendors that use PaaS to deliver custom software products, however, will be able to gain a significant cost advantage over those that do not, especially in the low-price, technically acceptable, government procurement environment.
3. Integration will become the new "killer app."
The term "killer app" generally refers to the technology that's so necessary it drives adoption of a computing paradigm. Complexity is the problem of the cloud era. The cloud is evolving into a hodgepodge of disparate cloud services from vendors that are scattered all over the world. IT professionals will turn to cloud services brokers to manage the growing complexity problem by integrating heterogeneous infrastructure services, while software developers will turn to PaaS for integrating disparate Web services to deliver seamless user experiences to their customers.
Update: Cloud services brokerage is becoming a key component for managing hybrid enterprise IT environments. A new entrant in the marketplace, the cloud access security broker, is emerging as a vital and complementary brokerage service. As cloud service standardization becomes more prevalent, federal system integrators will quickly morph into government service integrators that are able to deliver fully integrated, secure cloud-based service solutions on demand.
4. India and outsourcing countries will drive industry adoption of PaaS worldwide.
The software development outsourcing industry thrives on the value proposition of more for less; it's what it does well. In 2013, PaaS will be adopted by companies in India and in other major outsourcing countries in a rapid and notable fashion. It will cause a ripple effect throughout industry because these outsourcing companies are so integral to modern business operations. The cloud makes geographic boundaries irrelevant.
Update: Major outsourcing countries are exploring how PaaS can be used to reduce development cost and increase margins. This is crucial to these countries' continued ability to be the preferred providers of skilled labor. If such efforts are not successful enough, though, security concerns and the need to preserve domestic jobs will drive a retrenchment of the worldwide offshoring business. The economic savings enabled by offshoring also will spur an intense review of software acquisition policies. Continued enforcement of onshore development and software developer citizenship requirements may no longer become financially viable for many agencies.