re: How Skype/Facebook Will Kill The Phone Network
Art is right on the money regarding rendering the old telecom network to the trash heap.
Skype's greatest value is the directory service, which is based on people, not devices. I can go to virtually any device and leverage the network, log out and not leave a trace of my use. Facebook is a phenomenal connection platform, open to innovation. the old line (pun intended) telecom network is neither open nor available for innovation
Take location based services. the telco's had this information for years, and refused to open it up, even on fee basis , to app developers. Google and others said, "Fine, we'll develop our own version", and they did, now a free service exists that is much more flexible, open and valuable than anything the telco's had.
this will happen over and over unless the incumbents "get-it", which may be never.
as long as Skype, Google, FaceBook , et al., stay open, they will rapidly replace the conventional applications running on switched networks, both wireline & wireless.
And frankly, with Federal subsidies (USF and others) going away, and the depreciation schedules nearing an end, telco's are more than happy to substitute IP network infrastructure for the old circuit switched stuff. they will pretend to be application providers, but culturally, they can never be app providers. that's OK, we need bullet-proof IP infrastructure to run everything on, too.
expect not only very large migration to IP service's but also keep an eye out for the return of Value Added Networks, as transaction based routing becomes a requirement.