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Fred Langa is a senior consulting editor and columnist for Windows Magazine. Fred's free weekly newsletter is available via subscribe@langa.com. You can contact him at fred@langa.com or via his website at http://www.langa.com.

Half Time

By Fred Langa

It's not getting many headlines right now because of that other major trial going on in Washington. But the Microsoft/Department of Justice trial--a battle that may shape the computer industry's competitive landscape for years to come--is just now starting its second half.

So far, it's been quite a ride. Disclosures of embarrassing E-mails, videos of a "forgetful" Bill Gates, Java-oriented legal sideshows, and a huge, blockbuster merger between Netscape and America Online have been just a few of the highlights (or lowlights, if you prefer).

Taking stock of what's transpired so far, it seems to me that the government has the upper hand and has successfully portrayed Microsoft in an extremely unflattering light. In fact, the negative focus has been so strong it may already have succeeded in altering Microsoft's corporate behavior: Witness Microsoft's recent rollout of a new version of Internet Explorer for the Macintosh. This version has features that are not yet available on Intel-based systems, and can be viewed as an attempt by Microsoft to assist, rather than crush, a competitor.

Of course, the trial's only half over: The government has been in the driver's seat until just last week, when it rested its case. Microsoft is only now getting started with its defense.

I think we'll see two major themes in Microsoft's arguments:

First, I expect the company will try to prove that the rapid emergence (and growing acceptance) of non-Microsoft alternatives such as Linux and the whole open source movement show that customers still have choices, and that when a good idea comes along, there's little Microsoft or anyone can do to stop it. (Just ask a Linux fan!)

Second, I think Microsoft will seek to demonstrate that the AOL/Netscape merger proves that there's plenty of life left in the non-Microsoft portions of the industry. When a powerful mega-alliance can crop up overnight and change the competitive landscape at a stroke, how can it be said that Microsoft has the industry in a stranglehold?

There's something to be said for these arguments, but they take a broader view than the government has chosen to focus on. That's why I believe that if, in the end, the trial is decided on the details of Microsoft's actions (on contract specifics, for example) Microsoft will lose.

But if the trial is decided on "big picture" issues such as whether or not Microsoft really has used its monopoly position to choke the life out of the industry, I think Microsoft will win: The non-Microsoft parts of the industry are clearly alive and well and growing stronger.

Does Microsoft really have the industry in a stranglehold, or can good ideas still emerge from non-Microsoft sources and become accepted? Has the government built an ironclad case, and if so, what will the outcome be: Splitting up Microsoft? A huge fine? Ongoing governmental regulation? Or will Microsoft walk? Is the new "kinder, gentler" Microsoft a sham, or a meaningful change?

What's your take on it all? Join in!

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