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December 29, 1999

Keeping Score

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What do you think were the major trends, stories, and events for 1999? What were the IT highs and lows, and what do you think we'll remember most about this past year? What was the No. 1 event in computing in 1999? And, looking ahead, what are your predictions for the year 2000?
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Fred Langa is a senior consulting editor and columnist for Windows Magazine. Fred's free weekly newsletter is available via subscribe@langa.com. You can contact him at fred@langa.com or via his website at http://www.langa.com.

By Fred Langa

Most columnists love writing annual predictions because, usually, no one goes back to keep score.

The folks at TechWeb asked me for predictions this year, too (see http://www.techweb.com/wire/yearend99/columnists/langa.html) But in the interests of full disclosure, I thought it would be good to first dig out my predictions from a year ago and examine them in the clear light of hindsight.

A year ago, I thought the top trends and major story of 1999 would be that "the once-impregnable Wintel fortress has started to crumble."

More specifically:

"On the hardware side, AMD, Cyrix, and IDT have produced powerful, compatible, and affordable CPUs that have opened up the CPU chip market wider than it's been in almost 20 years. On the software side, Linux and a resurgent Apple--and maybe some long-shot players such as Be--are likewise opening up the operating system market. ... [And] one way or the other, the outcome of [the antitrust] trial will shape the computing landscape for years to come."

I think it's safe to say that the weakening of the Wintel duopoly was indeed the No. 1 trend of the year. Whew; it would have been embarrassing to get that one wrong.

"In systems, the antilegacy drumbeat is growing louder, and next year we'll see the start of a flood of new machines that make no attempt to retain compatibility with the now-ancient AT-class standards of the 1980s. Built with all-PCI/AGP architectures and using only USB and FireWire for external connections, these systems should be simpler, cheaper, more stable, and far easier to configure and maintain than any previous PC has ever been."

This only partly came true: There are indeed many systems that now ship with no legacy card slots at all, but although the numbers are growing, they're still not as dominant as I'd thought they'd be.

"In connectivity, a rash of new low-cost Digital Subscriber Line offerings plus new high-capacity wireless Internet access choices such as MMDS [Multichannel Multipoint Distribution Service] and LMDS [Local Multipoint Distribution Service] will make it far easier for businesses to inexpensively stitch together distributed staffs and to keep road warriors highly productive and connected no matter where they are. In fact, with high data-rate options available everywhere, the IT definition of an enterprise has to change--it's no longer bound by geography, or a campus or a building; nor bound to any particular network topology."

Again, partly true. Cable and DSL have burgeoned, but (except in Canada and parts of Europe) MMDS/LMDS and similar choices haven't really done much. The "Year of the Fat Pipe" still lies somewhere in the future. For most people, it's still a modem-driven world out there.

"Next year also promises new challenges such as a service pack for and a new equipment makers' version of Windows 98; the release (at last!) of Windows 2000 (the operating system formerly known as NT 5); the release of Office 2000; a new version of the Mac OS..."

Win98SE did emerge, though as a mixed retail/original equipment manufacturer item; Windows 2000 was released to manufacturing, but won't go on sale until February; Office 2000 is out and in wide use; the Mac OS upgrade turned out to be just a minor refresh, with OSX not slated to appear until next summer.

On balance, these predictions were more right than wrong, but not the slam dunk I'd hoped for. Of course, that's exactly why most columnists don't go back to tell you how their past predictions fared!

One item I didn't predict last year was the emergence of open-source products as a whole. And in a way, I'm glad I didn't because, once you strip away the hype, open-source projects have a mixed record. Linux has been the obvious success story, except that the Linux market is already starting to balkanize, just as Unix did before it. Other open-source projects are extremely late (e.g. Mozilla) or have proven to be less than what was originally discussed (Sun). In fact, open sourcing may prove to be best as an incubator for new approaches rather than as a provider of mainstream applications.

What do you think the major trends, stories, and events were for 1999? What were the highs and low, and what do you think we'll remember most about this past year? What was the No. 1 event in computing in 1999?

And, looking ahead, check out http://www.techweb.com/wire/yearend99/columnists/langa.html and then tell us what you agree or disagree with. What are your predictions for the year 2000? Join in!

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