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4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
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TreeInMyCube
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TreeInMyCube,
User Rank: Apprentice
5/6/2013 | 6:07:20 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
As I read this, I was reminded of some of the points Christensen made in "The Innovator's Dilemma" back in the early days of the Internet. Tablets and smartphones are no good for certain tasks which PC makers believe are important -- at least, initially. Listening to their customers, PC makers added larger, more beautiful displays; bigger hard disks, and disk+SSD combos; greater performance from their video cards. Along comes the disruptive innovation, the tablet, to address a different and as-yet-unmet need. Over time, the tablets improve and certain PC options begin to die off.
Perhaps the most important analogy - comparison with mainframes and servers. At one point, mainframes were the only game in town, and the PC revolution brought a new balance of power for doing business computing. At one point, desktop systems were the only game in town, and the tablet/smartphone revolution will bring a new balance of power for doing personal computing. I agree, Michael -- the high water mark has been reached, but PC systems will not fully disappear even as mainframes and multi-CPU servers have not fully disappeared.
moarsauce123
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moarsauce123,
User Rank: Ninja
5/6/2013 | 7:58:03 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
I own desktops, laptops, and tablets. From my experience the ones that will drop off are the laptops. Anything that is lightweight and requires no data entry whatsoever is done on a tablet, everything else on a beefy desktop. I keep a laptop around as it comes in handy to update wireless devices and for the off chance than all three of my desktops kick the bucket at the same time.
fyrelab
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fyrelab,
User Rank: Apprentice
5/6/2013 | 8:56:50 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
The dumb'ed down public finally found games they can play like Angry Idiot Birds and Cowpatty Farmville while they text in their cars. They couldn't play Everquest or WoW which require brains and tenacity along with state-of-the art video cards that cost as much as a tablet "pc."

Sigh, this is the future. For me, I will continue to use desktops with fast processors and video cards that use the best technology available. I see kids absorbed with their 4'' screen phones totally absorbed in their social media, and I also see a generation of nitwits, lol. I'm venting. Each to their own, but I choose high-tech over the bubble gum products.
jqb
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jqb,
User Rank: Apprentice
5/6/2013 | 9:51:02 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
If you want to sound authoritative, don't quote the potheads at Gartner as your source...
Michael Endler
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Michael Endler,
User Rank: Author
5/6/2013 | 10:03:39 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
Did Forrester say something in this instance that you find particularly questionable? The argument that the tablet market has fragmented seems pretty reasonable to me, even if one disagrees with Forrester analysts in general.

Michael Endler, IW Associate Editor
jqb
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jqb,
User Rank: Apprentice
5/6/2013 | 11:15:29 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
Michael, first off it's Gartner, and yes their statement that "half of all companies will implement mandatory BYOD by 2017" is ludicrous, like most of Gartner's predictions. I find Gartner to be "wave surfers" who are more often dead wrong than even close. That's why I no longer subscribe to their services.
Michael Endler
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Michael Endler,
User Rank: Author
5/6/2013 | 11:34:39 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
Thanks for the reply. Sorry, I'm running around Interop, and I typed in the comment in a moment of distraction. You said Gartner, so I'm not sure why my brain said Forrester. Anyway, the BYOD figure is bullish, to be sure, and I don't have much basis for agreeing or disagreeing with any particular figure-- except that 2017 will have a lot of companies that offer BYOD, and a lot of companies that don't.

I don't think the Gartner reference changes the overall argument; the argument doesn't rely on one set of data or another, and the existence of BYOD on any kind of large scale reinforces what I'm writing about. But analysts aren't any more infallible than the rest of us, and they sometimes prove themselves more so. So I appreciate that you're skeptical about them as sources.

Out of curiosity, have you found some of the other research firms more helpful?

- Michael
jqb
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jqb,
User Rank: Apprentice
5/7/2013 | 1:51:25 AM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
No, we don't bother with any of them. We now prefer to just do our own research to the extent we can, and find it more usable and actionable than the wild prognostications we had gotten from the "research firms".
For example, just take the word "mandatory" out of the sentence in question, and it becomes 75% more believable. It's a bit of a stretch to believe half of all companies will have a formal BYOD program of any sort by 2017, to add "mandatory" takes it out of plausible right into laughable.
Laurianne
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Laurianne,
User Rank: Author
5/7/2013 | 5:30:07 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
I find the 'mandatory" part of this just as debatable as you do. i find the MS attention to mini tablets, however, quite instructive about the future of the PC market.

Laurianne McLaughlin
InformationWeek
rdecker926
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rdecker926,
User Rank: Apprentice
5/8/2013 | 9:21:00 PM
re: 4 Reasons PC Market Won't Rebound
The PC is not going away anytime soon. However, other "personal computing" devices are appearing that are augmenting the tools that the current worker uses to accomplish their everyday tasks.Tablets are great for meetings but don't handle those huge spreadsheets, databases or large graphics files very well. Smartphones are great communication tools but I've yet to see one able to produce even the smallest CADD project.

You can't build a track of houses with a hand ax, no, you need to use the right tool for the right job. A smartphone is the right tool for some, and for others, it ain't! So, as much as you would like to see it happen, and as many times as I have read about the demise of the PC, it isn't going away anytime soon......
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