With the usual series of disclsoures (for details, just look at my disclsoure page but briefly, I'm an adviser to ActiveState by way of their acquisition of Appsecute. Previosuly I've worked with Krishnan Subramanian who, despite saying his tweets and blog comments are completely his alone, also works for OpenShift/RedHat. Note that while Krish and I used to work together, we haven't spoken for a long time and the only time I hear from him is indirectly by way of tweets questioning my sanity/morality/ethics/etc. I've spent time, shared beers and dinner and generally hung out with a bunch of folks in the PaaS world), here's my take.
10 months? Sorry Josh, if only for ego and appearances sake, RedHat won't pull the plus on OpenShift in that time. That's not to say that it won't happen, it'll just take a little longer. The very interesting thing would be to see how RedHat spun it and what it meant for the vehement "OpenShift forver" crew within RH.
Clearly Rackspace screwed over RedHat in launching Solum and then jumping into the Cloud Foundry world. But what else could they do? Solum is a nothing, an announcement with little substance. OpenShift may have customers but it's unfortunately either created or been thrust into an apparent zero sum battle with Cloud Foundry and it's patently obvious who is winning that - CF has almost every big vendor on board, it's winning the attention battle and unfortunately OpenShift responds not with good stories of customer wins (which I'm sure exist) but with a continual barrage of snark - regardless whether it comes form individual's accounts and is appended with a "personal views only" statement, that stuff sticks and it feels like a very defensive RedHat coming through.
It's also worrisome that apart from a small band of folks, we don't see a lot of love given to OpenShift from the RedHat execs, maybe the RedHat summit will change that but, for obvious reasons, I'm about as likely to hear about that as James Watters is to get an invite to the OpenShift drinks.
Underlying all of this is the fact that Docker specifically, and containers generally, are the flavor de jour, and much of the PaaS value prop is delivered by containers (at least for Linux apps). In this regard Cloud Foundry has the advantage since (for Pivotal at least) it's part of a greater whole and Pivotal can quickly spin a story about all the other goodness that was spun into it from EMC and VMare.
PaaS isn't dead (despite comments from pundit-critics who suggest I've said it is), but PaaS is going to change as it works out where it sits between IaaS vendors rapidly moving up the stack, container offerings doing much fo the protability stuff, management tools doing scaling, and application vendors moving down into the declarative platform space. Lots of thinking to do huh?
Right - that's my 2 cents, now we just wait for the barrage of comments suggesting that I know nothing about the space. Coming in 3, 2, 1...