Whether BlackBerry 10 lives up to the sudden hype remains to be seen, but if it does, there's a good bet that app developers will be leading the charge.
RIM faces steep challenges in launching the new OS. Accounting for just 4.6% of the smartphone field in 2012, the BlackBerry platform has hemorrhaged so much of its once-considerable market share that there's little ground left to cede.
One of the most damning indictments against RIM's future has been a lack of enthusiasm among developers. The bring-your-own-device, or BYOD, phenomenon not only accelerated Android and iOS to global dominance but also realigned the workplace dynamic. Previously, IT had decided what devices were office-worthy; now, the preference of end users carries more weight.
[ Learn more about RIM's latest mobile management platform. Read RIM Launches BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10. ]
User preference demands a compelling experience driven by not only enjoyable hardware but also a rich app economy -- not the traits for which BlackBerry devices are most known. Indeed, an IDC-Appcelerator survey conducted in November found that BlackBerry attracted only one developer for every nine interested in making iPhone apps.
But opinions can change quickly in the tech world -- just ask Apple's investors. RIM has been aggressively courting developers over the last few months, and the effort has, at least in terms of volume, begun to pay off. The company audaciously promised that 70,000 apps will be available when the new phones launch, and with recent hackathons generating upward of 40,000 submissions, RIM might actually achieve its goal. What's more, RIM is offering developers incentives of up to $9,000, albeit under a a fairly specific set of conditions.
A huge catalogue won't appeal to anyone if the apps are all lousy, of course, but RIM has been proactive in this regard as well, touting the ease with which Android products can be ported. If building native BlackBerry 10 apps were to require substantially more work than creating Android offerings, most developers would just stick to the latter. But if Android developers can also sell to RIM customers with only minor marginal effort, there's a greater chance the BlackBerry app store will not only start big but also continue to grow.
The hardware is another component. Great apps can't be enjoyed if the phones and their OS aren't inviting and engaging as well. RIM hasn't released details about the new BlackBerry 10 devices but a steady stream of leaks has set expectations.
One of the upcoming devices should feature a physical QWERTY keyboard and is likely geared to those who enjoy using today's BlackBerry products. The other, which is expected to vaguely resemble an iPhone, is a more dramatic departure from the company's traditional form factors. Many of its rumored features are attractive but not groundbreaking: Near-field communication, an 8-megapixel camera, 1080p video recording, and so on. But others are more impressive, such as a screen with greater pixel density than the iPhone's Retina display.