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12/2/2013
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Amazon Prime Goes Drone

Amazon Prime Air would deliver packages up to five pounds, but it's far from clear that drones would be safe and welcome in urban areas.

Military Drones Present And Future: Visual Tour
Military Drones Present And Future: Visual Tour
(click image for larger view and for slideshow)

Amazon.com is testing drones to deliver small packages, CEO Jeff Bezos said on Sunday in a 60 Minutes interview. The company's goal is to be able to deliver goods to customers within 30 minutes of receiving an order.

The tests are being conducted with drones known as octocopters, with an eye toward being able to carry payloads of up to five pounds. The service is tentatively called Amazon Prime Air.

"The hardest challenge in making this happen is going to be demonstrating, to the standards of the FAA, that this is a safe thing to do," Bezos told 60 Minutes correspondent Charlie Rose. "I don't want anyone to think that this is just around the corner. This is years of additional work from this point."

When Rose pressed him to provide a more precise timeframe, Bezos said that he's an optimist, and that he believes the technology could be ready in four to five years.

What's less clear is whether consumers will be ready. Given US military use of drones, there's a large portion of the world that isn't likely to be receptive to deliveries from the air. Beyond that, drones raise issues of privacy, safety, noise, and regulation.

Amazon Prime Air quadcopter.
Amazon Prime Air quadcopter.

Civilian drones are currently regulated under the FAA's rules for flying model airplanes (AC 91-57). Under current rules, the FAA expects drones to remain within the operator's line of sight. The FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 directs the agency to integrate drones into national airspace rules by September 2015.

Drones traveling beyond the line of sight need sensors and cameras to navigate autonomously or via remote control. Assuring people that a drone isn't gathering surveillance footage will require considerable effort, particularly in countries where Google had its Street View cars gathering WiFi data. Allaying public fears will not come easily, because drones are already gathering aerial footage that's raising privacy concerns.

A 2005 report titled "Safety Considerations for Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in the National Airspace System" is cautiously optimistic about the potential for small UAVs to operate safely, even in densely populated areas. "For mini UAVs, operation over 95% of the country could be achieved, with a low reliability requirement," the report states. "To operate over highly populated areas, additional mitigation measures that lessen the impact if an accident occurs may need to be employed."

And drone accidents do occur. A remote controlled drone crashed at Virginia Motorsports Park in Richmond in August during the Great Bull Run, a recreation of Spain's Running of the Bulls. Four or five people received minor injuries as a result, according to The Washington Post, which has published video of the drone descending into the crowd. Bezos coincidentally bought The Washington Post that same month.

In October, a man was nearly struck by a drone that crashed at his feet in Manhattan. The drone operator, reportedly a 34-year-old Brooklyn musician, was arrested.

The FAA is revising its rules for operating unmanned aerial vehicles. Whatever safety measures end up being required by the agency, drone costs will probably go up as a consequence. And if the drone delivery industry ever takes off, it will take only one terrorist using a drone to deliver explosives to bring the whole thing crashing back to Earth.

Nonetheless, drones are already a hit with investors. In October, Bloomberg reported that venture capitalists had invested $40.9 million in drone-related startups during the first nine months of 2013 -- more than twice the amount invested in all of 2012. Like Bezos, drone investors appear to be optimists. Or their financial padding ensures they would survive a drone industry crash.

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Kristin Burnham
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Kristin Burnham,
User Rank: Author
12/2/2013 | 4:22:11 PM
30-minute shipping
I watched the special last night -- very cool stuff. That tidbit about offering 30-minute shipping to areas within a 10-mile radius of the fulfillment warehouses will be a huge perk for people living in cities. Most probably can't make the trip to the store and back for their purchase in 30 minutes or less as it is right now.
Thomas Claburn
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Thomas Claburn,
User Rank: Author
12/2/2013 | 4:41:34 PM
Re: 30-minute shipping
Cool though it may be, I can't help but think a bike messenger would be more efficient.
WKash
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WKash,
User Rank: Author
12/2/2013 | 4:46:55 PM
Bezos
Got to give Jeff Bezos credit for using 60 minutes to project leading edge innovation.  Of course, it may take FAA years to resolve domestic drone rules. 
melgross
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melgross,
User Rank: Ninja
12/2/2013 | 10:07:46 PM
Re: Bezos
Please, this is a really nutty idea. I'm not sure he even is serious. He's good at generating publicity though.
RobPreston
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RobPreston,
User Rank: Author
12/3/2013 | 9:46:42 AM
Re: Bezos
Yeah, Bezos is a master. There's a reason Amazon has a market cap of about $120 billion with very small profits. It has a leader who thinks long term, takes risks, but is always customer-focused. These package-delivery drones may turn out to be a nutty idea, but so was the concept of a self-driving car a year or two ago. 
Gary_EL
IW Pick
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Gary_EL,
User Rank: Ninja
12/2/2013 | 5:12:56 PM
What Problem does it Solve?
It sounds really impressive and forward looking, but it doesn't solve either of my two major problems with online sales:

The first is cost of delivery. Say I buy a $20 shirt or computer accessory - I have to pay a few bucks for delivery. This makes buying little things a bit impractical for me. I can't imagine having it "delivered by drone" will make it any cheaper.

The second is theft. So many people buy from Ebay, Amazon etc that my building lobby is starting to look like a postal substation, and even in our low-crime area, packages are starting to turn up missing.

Solve those two issues, and I'll probably never buy anything other than shoes and pants in a brick 'n mortar again.

 
Thomas Claburn
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Thomas Claburn,
User Rank: Author
12/2/2013 | 5:16:00 PM
Re: What Problem does it Solve?
You're right about theft. It's already a problem for packages left at people's doors. Drones won't be able to do drops unless met by the buyer.
ChrisMurphy
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ChrisMurphy,
User Rank: Author
12/2/2013 | 5:24:40 PM
Re: What Problem does it Solve?
Harry Potter showed us this is perfectly feasible. And delivery by owl would solve the noise problem.
Ariella
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Ariella,
User Rank: Ninja
12/3/2013 | 9:34:09 AM
Re: What Problem does it Solve?
@Chris But would they do day deliveries? Seriously, people used to use pigeons, and they were even specially outfitted by Maidenform for World War II.  See http://blog.americanhistory.si.edu/osaycanyousee/2013/09/pigeons-in-bras-go-to-war.html
Whoopty
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Whoopty,
User Rank: Ninja
12/3/2013 | 12:23:07 PM
Re: What Problem does it Solve?
You jest, but Waterstones jokingly brought this up in response to the Amazon story:

 

http://www.waterstones.com/blog/2013/12/introducing-o-w-l-s/
Shane M. O'Neill
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Shane M. O'Neill,
User Rank: Author
12/2/2013 | 7:12:12 PM
A great idea but too many negatives
I'm on board with speedy delivery and using tech to make life easier. But I have visions of packages landing in the bushes and on roofs. Accuracy is hard and it's so easy for a package to get stolen in the city. Drones buzzing around could also distract drivers and just create general noise pollution. Add the potential for privacy violations (drones gathering data) and I'm dubious about delivery drones (How's that for alliteration?). I'll keep an open mind though; if the drones are cleared by the authorities as quiet, safe and perfectly accurate, this may become a society-changing thing. But right now there is just too much to poke fun at ... and also fear.
Ariella
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Ariella,
User Rank: Ninja
12/3/2013 | 9:39:34 AM
Re: A great idea but too many negatives
@Shane Have you seen this? 

Not quite as popular, but another possible illustration of what can go wrong is:



And here's one on the post office's response:

Shane M. O'Neill
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Shane M. O'Neill,
User Rank: Author
12/3/2013 | 9:55:36 AM
Re: A great idea but too many negatives
A drone rebellion against mankind is a concern. Have we learned nothing from Battlestar Galactica?
virsingh211
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virsingh211,
User Rank: Strategist
12/5/2013 | 4:29:10 AM
Re: A great idea but too many negatives
This is new to me, i read more about it, they'll initially carry items up to five pounds, which is roughly 86% of all deliveries Amazon makes, one of concern area i see is eligibility criteria for using drone service.
cbabcock
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cbabcock,
User Rank: Strategist
12/2/2013 | 7:25:08 PM
Launch drone, eclipse privacy
Physical privacy in your own yard will become a thing of the past once a digital camera is a routine attachment to an easily acquired drone. To keep any privacy, you may need surveillance drones at each corner of your property, on guard for flying intruders. But Harry Potter would be grossed out by the octocopter. Why use one of those when a mere broom will do?
Thomas Claburn
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Thomas Claburn,
User Rank: Author
12/3/2013 | 9:36:24 PM
Re: Launch drone, eclipse privacy
I suspect drone downing will become a popular if not entirely legal sport in certain parts of the US.
Kristin Burnham
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Kristin Burnham,
User Rank: Author
12/4/2013 | 8:36:22 PM
Re: Launch drone, eclipse privacy
Drone Dynasty. I smell a reality show already.
Thomas Claburn
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Thomas Claburn,
User Rank: Author
12/4/2013 | 8:40:20 PM
Re: Launch drone, eclipse privacy
That's a show I'd watch.
Ariella
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Ariella,
User Rank: Ninja
12/5/2013 | 8:51:39 AM
Re: Launch drone, eclipse privacy
@thomas ha, like skeet shooting, only it would be drones instead of clay disks.
jurowski
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jurowski,
User Rank: Apprentice
12/3/2013 | 10:06:19 AM
do we need this level of instant gratification?
I'll admit that last week while sitting in Chicago rush-hour traffic, I fantasized about a drone-based pizza delivery service to those in traffic.

But what have we become as humans when we need to satisfy every whim instantaneously? Our strength comes in part from patience, and that is deteriorating with each passing day and each technological leap. At some point we need to ask if always bigger better more faster compels us toward becoming a new generation of grown adults acting like spoiled brats.
Ariella
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Ariella,
User Rank: Ninja
12/3/2013 | 11:58:31 AM
Re: do we need this level of instant gratification?
@jurowki 

"But what have we become as humans when we need to satisfy every whim instantaneously? Our strength comes in part from patience, and that is deteriorating with each passing day and each technological leap. At some point we need to ask if always bigger better more faster compels us toward becoming a new generation of grown adults acting like spoiled brats."

I agree. We have become more and more of an instant generation.  We always want things faster. I remember seeing someone showing his grandmother an electric kettle and said, she'd get her water boiled faster. She wasn't impressed because she didn't mind waiting a few minutes.

 Consider how much we want everything "on demand" and that means at the instant I demand it. And the more that surrounds us, the more we expect it. While I have FIOS now for my internet, it still moves slowly at times, and I find myself impatient about it. But several years back, I had dial-up and had to wait far longer for things to load. 
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