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9/11/2012
11:17 AM
Eric Zeman
Eric Zeman
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iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts

It's iPhone 5 eve, and analysts are rolling out their predictions for the new Jesus phone from Apple. According to these soothsayers, the iPhone 5 is going to have a big, big impact.

iPhone 5: 10 Things To Expect
iPhone 5: 10 Things To Expect
(click image for larger view and for slideshow)
Apple will announce the iPhone 5 Wednesday, and the new smartphone will have a monstrous impact, according to a wave of predictions from mobile industry analysts.

The most bullish (insane?) prediction comes from none other than Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster. "We believe that if the 21st is the actual ship date, Apple could sell 6 million to 10 million iPhone 5s in the final week of September barring supply issues," Munster wrote in a research note last week.

Apple would have to sell more than one million per day to achieve those numbers. Is that even possible? It depends on dozens of factors, the most important which isn't demand, so much as it is the number of markets in which Apple launches the device. If Apple follows what it has done in the past, the U.S. and the U.K. might be the only launch markets for the first couple of weeks. Though American consumers are clamoring for the iPhone 5, the likelihood that 10 million Americans and Brits are going to go phone shopping at the end of the month is doubtful. Apple stands a better chance of matching Munster's prediction if it launches in a dozen or more markets at once.

J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskwitz thinks the iPhone 5 could "disrupt" the entire mobile industry, such are its powers. Moskwitz thinks the iPhone 5 will leave a trail of ruin in its wake, laying waste to other phone makers and even PC makers. Woe unto thee who fall not among the suppliers of iPhone 5 components.

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty sees huge iPhone 5 sales, and predicts between 48 and 53 million by the end of the year. Throughout 2013, Huberty thinks Apple will sell 266 million iPhone 5s.

[ Forget the hype. What can we really expect to see from Apple Wednesday? Read iPhone 5 Preview: Setting Expectations. ]

IDC Research's Ramon Llamas is certain the iPhone 5 will be a hit. "Until they do something really unimpressive, which I don't see happening this time around, Apple has a serious hit on its hands," he said to Bloomberg.

Other analysts have been a bit more restrained in their predictions for the iPhone 5's debut.

For example, Forrester Research analyst Sarah Rotman said to Bloomberg, "The iPhone is the make-or-break product for Apple. Apple has the undeniable lead, but to stay on top they need to keep innovating." In other words, it might not be a walk in the park for Apple if the iPhone 5 isn't good enough.

Canalys analyst Chris Jones agrees. "A lot is riding on this. They have to make sure it's as good as people expect."

NPD Group analyst Stephen Baker offered these words: "Apple will have a highly successful launch, of that there can be no doubt, but the inevitability of easy market share gains in the U.S. is not quite so apparent this time around, as it has been in the past."

But what about the gross domestic product? Can it be saved by the iPhone. You betcha.

J.P. Morgan's chief economist Michael Feroli believes the iPhone 5 could bounce the GDP by 0.25% to 0.5%. "Calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost annualized GDP growth by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate," Feroli wrote in a research note. "Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger [than the iPhone 4S launch], we think the estimate mentioned ... is reasonable."

Hallelujah, the economy's savior is finally here!

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MyW0r1d
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MyW0r1d,
User Rank: Strategist
9/17/2012 | 2:10:32 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
In fact, isn't the larger screen perhaps the greatest of its benefits in this iteration? Support for LTE is not new (hasn't various Android's supported LTE for a while now), a new charger dongle is not necessarily what would drive me to buy a phone, thinner or lighter weight (we're talking parts of ounces here aren't we), better fitting earbuds (?).

A red cape? Maybe a cane, it seems this time round they are playing catch up or working on old discomforts.
lbell284
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lbell284,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/17/2012 | 5:52:03 AM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
I was at a family gathering today where 6 of the people had various Iphones and I asked everyone of them what they thought of the new one and if they planned to buy it when it came out.

One female plans to because it has a bigger screen. All the rest said no for slightly different reasons but basically all the answers come to 'the one I have works fine and I don't need another one anytime soon.

I think they are rather overestimating how many are going to be sold during the first few weeks.
Cheap Smartphones
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Cheap Smartphones,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/12/2012 | 12:55:26 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
I guess theres too much hype for its unveiling, hope its all worth it when it finally comes out
ANON1241237720951
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ANON1241237720951,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/12/2012 | 4:35:27 AM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
eric, i am offended by the religious tone, and specifically the use of "Jesus Phone". Would you ever use the term "Allah Phone" or "The Prophet Phone"? Stop doing that.
ANON1237925156805
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ANON1237925156805,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 8:37:54 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
China these days buys political quiet by allowing its citizens to be consumers of the latest and greatest toys. Initially it doesn't care where they products come from if they keep the people happy and there are profits within China from selling them. However anything with staying power they will imitate and eventually they will manipulate things to block out foreign competition, undercut prices and dump, etc. Exhibit A is solar panels.

In that context it's clear that Apple initially dominated because there were no comparable offerings made in China. Now there are. You know that the govt is manipulating things behind the scenes to give an artificial lift to Lenovo, Huawei, etc.

Does this hurt Apple? Absolutely yes. Long term it also hurts Samsung, HTC, etc. Partly leaders waste no love on South Korea. So it's not irrelevant. But it's also not something that Apple can solve by revolutionizing the iPhone. The quantum leap for that category of device occurred with iPhones 1 and 2. Now there's creativity around the edges. Apple is in the hunt with lots of others and China is not a place they can win.

In free market economies, things are different of course. Apple will not be the player it once was unless it has a trick up its sleeve that none of us has anticipated. But for a company with such a small panel of devices Apple does phenomenal business and what's more their per unit profit is second to none. Early days to be crying wolf.

Apple's real mission is to be working behind the scenes on the next revolutionary device. We assume that's happening; let's hope we're right.
skaseus
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skaseus,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 8:36:18 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
Meh!
GMar
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GMar,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 8:00:39 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
I do have to agree with you that they need to let loose of that proprietary gotcha stuff.
GMar
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GMar,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 7:49:50 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
And your seriously going imply there are better pro audio and video apps for Android? When I can control my DAW or keyboard setup, record and make beats that sync or transfer to my Mac with an Android, you have some room to argue. Until then, you can enjoy your toy apps with dancing bears and the like.
Anmol Ghotra
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Anmol Ghotra,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 6:42:19 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
Are you seriously going to defend iOS with its developer community? You have no idea what you are talking about. Apple sets a very confine path for developers to what they can and cannot do in terms application development techniques, API, and sharing services. Im not defending google here but I know as a fact that Google provides you with all of the power tools you need to create the app with very minimal confinements so you can pave your own path on how the app will be be developed, interact, API sharing, and behavior.
CuriousTom
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CuriousTom,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 6:38:46 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
Actually, what Apple has always been all about is all of the gotcha's! As long as you want to use their devices the way they want you to use them, everything is fine. They always place absurd limitations on their devices like not being able to replace your battery yourself, proprietary connectors, no usb connections, no SD interfaces and we could go on and on and on! Apple is the biggest piece of crap and much is because all of the blindly loyal fan boys!
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