Mobile // Mobile Devices
Commentary
9/11/2012
11:17 AM
Eric Zeman
Eric Zeman
Commentary
Connect Directly
RSS
E-Mail
50%
50%

iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts

It's iPhone 5 eve, and analysts are rolling out their predictions for the new Jesus phone from Apple. According to these soothsayers, the iPhone 5 is going to have a big, big impact.

iPhone 5: 10 Things To Expect
iPhone 5: 10 Things To Expect
(click image for larger view and for slideshow)
Apple will announce the iPhone 5 Wednesday, and the new smartphone will have a monstrous impact, according to a wave of predictions from mobile industry analysts.

The most bullish (insane?) prediction comes from none other than Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster. "We believe that if the 21st is the actual ship date, Apple could sell 6 million to 10 million iPhone 5s in the final week of September barring supply issues," Munster wrote in a research note last week.

Apple would have to sell more than one million per day to achieve those numbers. Is that even possible? It depends on dozens of factors, the most important which isn't demand, so much as it is the number of markets in which Apple launches the device. If Apple follows what it has done in the past, the U.S. and the U.K. might be the only launch markets for the first couple of weeks. Though American consumers are clamoring for the iPhone 5, the likelihood that 10 million Americans and Brits are going to go phone shopping at the end of the month is doubtful. Apple stands a better chance of matching Munster's prediction if it launches in a dozen or more markets at once.

J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskwitz thinks the iPhone 5 could "disrupt" the entire mobile industry, such are its powers. Moskwitz thinks the iPhone 5 will leave a trail of ruin in its wake, laying waste to other phone makers and even PC makers. Woe unto thee who fall not among the suppliers of iPhone 5 components.

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty sees huge iPhone 5 sales, and predicts between 48 and 53 million by the end of the year. Throughout 2013, Huberty thinks Apple will sell 266 million iPhone 5s.

[ Forget the hype. What can we really expect to see from Apple Wednesday? Read iPhone 5 Preview: Setting Expectations. ]

IDC Research's Ramon Llamas is certain the iPhone 5 will be a hit. "Until they do something really unimpressive, which I don't see happening this time around, Apple has a serious hit on its hands," he said to Bloomberg.

Other analysts have been a bit more restrained in their predictions for the iPhone 5's debut.

For example, Forrester Research analyst Sarah Rotman said to Bloomberg, "The iPhone is the make-or-break product for Apple. Apple has the undeniable lead, but to stay on top they need to keep innovating." In other words, it might not be a walk in the park for Apple if the iPhone 5 isn't good enough.

Canalys analyst Chris Jones agrees. "A lot is riding on this. They have to make sure it's as good as people expect."

NPD Group analyst Stephen Baker offered these words: "Apple will have a highly successful launch, of that there can be no doubt, but the inevitability of easy market share gains in the U.S. is not quite so apparent this time around, as it has been in the past."

But what about the gross domestic product? Can it be saved by the iPhone. You betcha.

J.P. Morgan's chief economist Michael Feroli believes the iPhone 5 could bounce the GDP by 0.25% to 0.5%. "Calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost annualized GDP growth by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate," Feroli wrote in a research note. "Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger [than the iPhone 4S launch], we think the estimate mentioned ... is reasonable."

Hallelujah, the economy's savior is finally here!

Comment  | 
Print  | 
More Insights
Comments
Threaded  |  Newest First  |  Oldest First
CuriousTom
50%
50%
CuriousTom,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 5:38:21 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
All this hype about the iphone 5 is ridiculous! The people that are so worked up about a mediocre smartphone (not as good as some of the competitive products) need to have more important things in their lives!
3DGrunge
50%
50%
3DGrunge,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 6:11:21 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
Can we count the number of 1phone 4s's that are sold back to apple before they get their iphone 5? I guarantee the market is not growing fast. Then again when apple pays for advertising like this they do get a boost in sales from the mindless sheep. Same goes for all the free phones they provide to universities and schools, get em young eh?
GMar
50%
50%
GMar,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 6:17:35 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
@ CuriousTom and 3DGrunge- Last time I checked, no other phone has created a platform to attract developers making highly creative apps that are not toys or games, such as Moog, Propellerhead, Ableton, etc., which is what Apple has always been about for me. I could care less about the phone itself, games, T.V... If you want pro apps to create on the go for audio, video or web, the iPhone or iPad is the only way to go.
CuriousTom
50%
50%
CuriousTom,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 6:38:46 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
Actually, what Apple has always been all about is all of the gotcha's! As long as you want to use their devices the way they want you to use them, everything is fine. They always place absurd limitations on their devices like not being able to replace your battery yourself, proprietary connectors, no usb connections, no SD interfaces and we could go on and on and on! Apple is the biggest piece of crap and much is because all of the blindly loyal fan boys!
GMar
50%
50%
GMar,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 8:00:39 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
I do have to agree with you that they need to let loose of that proprietary gotcha stuff.
Anmol Ghotra
50%
50%
Anmol Ghotra,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 6:42:19 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
Are you seriously going to defend iOS with its developer community? You have no idea what you are talking about. Apple sets a very confine path for developers to what they can and cannot do in terms application development techniques, API, and sharing services. Im not defending google here but I know as a fact that Google provides you with all of the power tools you need to create the app with very minimal confinements so you can pave your own path on how the app will be be developed, interact, API sharing, and behavior.
GMar
50%
50%
GMar,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 7:49:50 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
And your seriously going imply there are better pro audio and video apps for Android? When I can control my DAW or keyboard setup, record and make beats that sync or transfer to my Mac with an Android, you have some room to argue. Until then, you can enjoy your toy apps with dancing bears and the like.
moarsauce123
50%
50%
moarsauce123,
User Rank: Ninja
9/11/2012 | 6:23:19 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
It's sad when we're hoping to be saved by adult toys.
Major_Pita
50%
50%
Major_Pita,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 6:36:01 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
The last iPhone release had an air of mystery, rumor and lots of conjecture. Not so this year. Whether it's the folks who cobbled various replacement parts into a complete shell or the case maker that revealed a dimensional demo used to design cases, the word is out along with images and side-by-side comparisons with the iPhone 4s. In addition, we've already seen the IOS 6 pre-release as well. Unless Apple has been manipulating things behind the scenes with a well-done ruse, and presents a completely different product, things my not be as grandiose as the hype suggests. Furthermore it will validate a lot of claims that Apples innovation has given over to refinement instead. Others may liken Apple to rock bands with smash hits, who's subsequent releases all begin to sound the same.

Apple has never had the kind of competition it now faces with Android, now the globally dominant smartphone OS. Apple's market share has been sliding in every major market except the United Sates and the UK. In China, the worlds largest market, Apple has lost half of it's tenuous foothold in the last year. The companies making inroads there are Samsung, Lenovo, Huawei, HTC and ZTE, holding the top 5 places in market share. This amid rumors that Foxconn - Apple's primary manufacturing partner is developing their own smartphone. If those companies decide to start placing large component and fabrication orders, Apple could find themselves competing with an entrenched block of Chinese smartphone OEMs-just to get parts and manufacturing time. We may already be seeing this impact, remember the recent story about Sharp's problems delivering displays?

As if that were not enough, in a bizarre turn of events, Chinese smartphone maker Goophone has actually designed AND PATENTED a new Android phone based very closely on the 'leaked' images of the iPhone 5. It's ironic that Apple's 'First to Patent" approach may ultimately backfire and shut them out of the Chinese market.

In summary, the deification of the iPhone 5 may be a little presumptuous.
skaseus
50%
50%
skaseus,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 8:36:18 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
Meh!
ANON1237925156805
50%
50%
ANON1237925156805,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/11/2012 | 8:37:54 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
China these days buys political quiet by allowing its citizens to be consumers of the latest and greatest toys. Initially it doesn't care where they products come from if they keep the people happy and there are profits within China from selling them. However anything with staying power they will imitate and eventually they will manipulate things to block out foreign competition, undercut prices and dump, etc. Exhibit A is solar panels.

In that context it's clear that Apple initially dominated because there were no comparable offerings made in China. Now there are. You know that the govt is manipulating things behind the scenes to give an artificial lift to Lenovo, Huawei, etc.

Does this hurt Apple? Absolutely yes. Long term it also hurts Samsung, HTC, etc. Partly leaders waste no love on South Korea. So it's not irrelevant. But it's also not something that Apple can solve by revolutionizing the iPhone. The quantum leap for that category of device occurred with iPhones 1 and 2. Now there's creativity around the edges. Apple is in the hunt with lots of others and China is not a place they can win.

In free market economies, things are different of course. Apple will not be the player it once was unless it has a trick up its sleeve that none of us has anticipated. But for a company with such a small panel of devices Apple does phenomenal business and what's more their per unit profit is second to none. Early days to be crying wolf.

Apple's real mission is to be working behind the scenes on the next revolutionary device. We assume that's happening; let's hope we're right.
ANON1241237720951
50%
50%
ANON1241237720951,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/12/2012 | 4:35:27 AM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
eric, i am offended by the religious tone, and specifically the use of "Jesus Phone". Would you ever use the term "Allah Phone" or "The Prophet Phone"? Stop doing that.
Cheap Smartphones
50%
50%
Cheap Smartphones,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/12/2012 | 12:55:26 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
I guess theres too much hype for its unveiling, hope its all worth it when it finally comes out
lbell284
50%
50%
lbell284,
User Rank: Apprentice
9/17/2012 | 5:52:03 AM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
I was at a family gathering today where 6 of the people had various Iphones and I asked everyone of them what they thought of the new one and if they planned to buy it when it came out.

One female plans to because it has a bigger screen. All the rest said no for slightly different reasons but basically all the answers come to 'the one I have works fine and I don't need another one anytime soon.

I think they are rather overestimating how many are going to be sold during the first few weeks.
MyW0r1d
50%
50%
MyW0r1d,
User Rank: Strategist
9/17/2012 | 2:10:32 PM
re: iPhone 5 Will Save The World: Analysts
In fact, isn't the larger screen perhaps the greatest of its benefits in this iteration? Support for LTE is not new (hasn't various Android's supported LTE for a while now), a new charger dongle is not necessarily what would drive me to buy a phone, thinner or lighter weight (we're talking parts of ounces here aren't we), better fitting earbuds (?).

A red cape? Maybe a cane, it seems this time round they are playing catch up or working on old discomforts.
Building A Mobile Business Mindset
Building A Mobile Business Mindset
Among 688 respondents, 46% have deployed mobile apps, with an additional 24% planning to in the next year. Soon all apps will look like mobile apps – and it's past time for those with no plans to get cracking.
Register for InformationWeek Newsletters
White Papers
Current Issue
InformationWeek Tech Digest September 18, 2014
Enterprise social network success starts and ends with integration. Here's how to finally make collaboration click.
Flash Poll
Video
Slideshows
Twitter Feed
InformationWeek Radio
Archived InformationWeek Radio
The weekly wrap-up of the top stories from InformationWeek.com this week.
Sponsored Live Streaming Video
Everything You've Been Told About Mobility Is Wrong
Attend this video symposium with Sean Wisdom, Global Director of Mobility Solutions, and learn about how you can harness powerful new products to mobilize your business potential.