From the start, we heard rumors that the iPhone 5 would have a smaller dock connector. Photos popped up, then parts, then accessories. At this point, we can probably consider it truth. The exact number of pins remains unclear, but we've heard between eight and nine.
Probability: This is as good as real. There have been several leaks and pictures on this one, and they all come from multiple sources with their own set of independent Apple insiders.
(Image credit: chrisbrownie91 on YouTube.)