Mobile
Commentary
9/24/2010
12:08 AM
Ed Hansberry
Ed Hansberry
Commentary
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Windows Phone To Take Third Spot By 2012

Right now the smartphone race has two key players for consumers, iOS and Android. Add the enterprise and business customer to the mix and Blackberry shows up as well. Windows Phone 7 hasn't even launched yet, but at lest one analyst thinks that within two years, it will be third in the field.

Right now the smartphone race has two key players for consumers, iOS and Android. Add the enterprise and business customer to the mix and Blackberry shows up as well. Windows Phone 7 hasn't even launched yet, but at lest one analyst thinks that within two years, it will be third in the field.Technically, Nokia is also in that mix since Symbian is a smartphone platform, though it lacks the consumer enthusiasm as well as a thriving application store. Many Nokia phones are sold as the cheap or free phone with a contract, at least in the US. According to the Street.com, Nokia is at 41 percent share, RIM at 18 percent, Android at 17 percent and the iPhone at 14 percent. Windows Mobile and Palm's WebOS make up the rest.

Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum thinks that within two years, Windows Phone will be in third place with about 15 percent market share. Android will dominate with 30 percent share and Apple will garner 25 percent. Presumably by then, the iPhone will be available on networks other than AT&T. RIM and Nokia will be roughly tied with Microsoft at 15 percent. WebOS will apparently have vanished by then.

I think it is a bit early to tell how the market will shape up twelve months from now, much less two years out. I have no doubt Microsoft will be a contender. With a $500 million war chest to get the OS off the ground, it will definitely be noticed. The UI and performance is on par with the competition.

That said though, much can happen in two years. I think it is hard to say much today beyond who the big players will be, and even that isn't a certainty.

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