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Report Predicts Continued U.S. Tech Dominance


A Rand Corp. report says the United States should continue to dominate global IT for the forseeable future.



SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- The United States will continue to dominate global technology for the foreseeable future but China could eventually threaten its lead, according to a new Rand Corp. report.

The study released Wednesday also said Europe would continue to trail the U.S. tech industry because of concerns over job loss and social stability.

It said the United States would continue to "lead the information technology revolution for years to come because U.S. businesses are focused on innovation, Americans readily accept change and the U.S. government provides an environment hospitable to IT business development."

The independent nonprofit think tank, which specializes in national security and economics research, said Japan's prolonged economic downturn could clear the way for China to fill Asia's information technology "power vacuum."

Other than China, Richard O. Hundley, lead author of the study by Rand's National Defense Research Institute, dismissed most countries that compete against the United States in software development and E-commerce as "losers or laggards."

"Unlike many other nations that concentrate on protecting existing businesses and institutions, the United States presses ahead with change even when it means 'creative destruction' of companies that drive its economy today in order to build a stronger economy tomorrow," Hundley wrote.

The report comes amid a growing backlash among unemployed computer programmers, economists, and politicians in American tech hubs such as Silicon Valley, Boston, and Seattle.

Many fear that outsourcing of highly skilled jobs and programs to recruit foreign technology workers to the United States is eroding the nation's tech dominance. Some are demanding legislation to slow or stop the pace of job exports to India, China, and Russia.

Roughly 27,000 technology jobs moved overseas in 2000, according to a November study by Forrester Research. The Cambridge, Mass.-based technology research firm predicted that number would mushroom to 472,000 by 2015 if companies continue to farm out computer work at today's frenzied pace.

The Rand study also assessed regional technology efforts:

* Unlike the United States, where companies including Microsoft, Intel, and Dell are exporting jobs, Europe is limiting offshore outsourcing to achieve "positive social outcomes."

* Asia manufactures more than 70 percent of technology products, including most computers and monitors.

* Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates are developing successful tech niches, while Israel's dominance in the Middle East is "held hostage to the outcome of Arab-Israeli conflict."

* Sub-Sahara Africa lacks higher education institutions, financial controls, and technical infrastructure to compete against other regions, and it "will continue to fall further behind much of the rest of the world over the next several decades."

* Latin America's technology sectors are "also-rans."


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