Spring 2000: George W. Bush campaigns for president, the Yankees seek another championship, and 3.4 million Americans work in IT. Summer 2004: George W. Bush campaigns for president, the Yankees seek another championship, and 3.4 million Americans work in IT. Déjà vu all over again, as Yogi might say? Not quite.

The latest IT employment numbers eerily mirror those of second-quarter 2000, when the IT jobless rate stood at 3.5% versus 3.4% last quarter. Then, the numbers presaged an eventual climb in IT unemployment, reaching 6.2% in 2004's first quarter. Last quarter's rate reflects an IT job resurgence, with joblessness falling from 4.8% in the second quarter. Some 408,000 more Americans worked in IT this summer than they did six months earlier. "Many IT projects were shelved, but now they're being brought back out" as the economy rebounds, says Jeff Markham, division director at IT staffing firm Robert Half Technology.

Another explanation for IT job growth: Corporate efforts to comply with new regulations to improve financial reporting. "Some companies spend more in the IT department for Sarbanes-Oxley than they do in their accounting departments," says Kevin Knaul, executive VP at Hudson Highland Group's staffing unit.

Our analysis of government data shows not only an increase in IT employment but a realignment in the business-technology workforce. Since that spring four years ago, 222,000 fewer IT pros work as computer programmers and analysts. That trend should continue. Up to 70% of application-development work will vanish in the United States, through use of automated tools and offshore outsourcing, says Tom Austin, Gartner's research fellow and group VP.

Yet, such work can be found. Bioinformatics startup Akaza Research recently hired Tom Hickerson as an associate developer. After completing undergrad studies three years ago, he began hunting for an IT job. "That was murder," he says about seeking work as the economy soured. So he returned to school and earned two graduate degrees. Today, Hickerson says the IT job market has improved, sort of. "There are more opportunities," he says, "but lower salaries."

Fields other than application development and computer support offer more opportunities. Since spring 2000, the rolls of computer systems, network and database administrators have increased by 109,000. IT managers saw an even bigger jump, up 113,000, or nearly 48%. "Offshoring and outsourcing brings a significant need for managers domestically, while coding, programming is moved overseas," Hudson's Knaul says.

Demand for managers, administrators, and software engineers reduces IT joblessness. Last quarter's jobless rate was the lowest since third-quarter 2000, when it fell to 2.0%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly aggregates monthly data culled from the same survey of 60,000 households used to determine the national unemployment rate. The bureau tracks hundreds of occupations, including eight IT job categories. InformationWeek computes employment and unemployment data in those eight categories to determine the IT unemployment rate. The unusual 3-percentage-point drop over six months confirms other data and anecdotes suggesting an improved IT economy. "The changes in the last few months seem large," says bureau economist Karen Kosanovic, "but not suspiciously so."