A survey of 1,725 U.S. teenagers and adults found that of those who planned to buy a digital music player in the next 12 months, 58% who owned iPods and 59% who owned some other brand were either "somewhat likely" or "extremely likely" to choose a Zune, ABI Research said.
Given the results, Apple will need to make some big announcements next year in order to maintain its dominant position in the market, Wilson said. "Apple needs a new high-end device that works really well and looks really cool, because other brands are catching up."
Microsoft, on the other hand, will have to differentiate Zune in a meaningful way to attract iPod owners, Wilson said.
Microsoft plans to start selling Zune and launch its supporting online music store this month.
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