Unfortunately I can't provide quantitative data on this point. There don't seem to be any Linux brand awareness surveys among non-Linux users. Searching on Google for "Linux brand recognition" turned up a CNN article from 1998, titled "Free OS gains groundswell of support." It reported that "Linux is beginning to emerge as a popular alternative to Windows NT." 1998 seems to have been a watershed year for Linux enthusiasts.
Absent hard numbers, I propose the following experiment: Take a poll at Thanksgiving dinner, and ask members of your extended family whether they're heard of Linux. (If someone should say yes, ask him or her what they think Linux is.)
Here, my argument is that, as is sometimes the case in the conjugal realm, expectations often outpace reality in regard to a new relationship. And make no mistake, a user enters into a relationship with his or her operating system. What else would you call it when you spend upwards of eight hours a day with someone or (in this case) something?
Which brings us to the important, but often unacknowledged, distinction between Linux and Windows. As I found when I attempted to install Ubuntu on a laptop, the experience of any one individual will differ from what all users taken as a group have been led to expect.
I submit that this isn't the case with Windows. Whatever problems Windows has -- and let's stipulate that there are many -- it does work, out of the box. Windows glitches don't involve an inability to boot up. True, Windows is most often pre-, rather than user, installed. Still, to penalize Microsoft is this regard would be to unfairly punish it for success.
On the countervailing side, one can fairly say that Ubuntu, like many Linux distros, is simple, in the good sense. It's nicely designed and isn't encumbered with a lot of overwrought crap. That's a criticism against which Windows isn't totally immune.
However, while most Linux distros work well for some users, few, if any, work well for 99.44% of all the folks who attempt to install them. That's a serious impediment to Linux's progress, if for no other reason than none of the people who have had negative experiences are going to be giving Linux positive word of mouth.
In this sense, many new Linux distros are like movies that do well on their opening weekend, but rapidly peter out. To its credit, Ubuntu has made it well past this barrier. Its challenge now is to become a long-term keeper.
This argument is separate from the fanboy take-down above. Even if Linux supporters were a bunch of friendly geeks who spent most of their waking hours behind a computer without bothering anyone -- oops, they are -- users exposed to years of Microsoft marketing collateral just aren't interested. Indeed, "I want my Microsoft" is the unspoken mantra of the average, computer-using office worker.
For argument's sake, let's temporarily set aside my points about users' awareness of and openness to trying Linux. Instead, let's focus on where the rubber meets the road: What do people perceive they've gotten when they try Linux, as opposed to their experience with Windows.
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