As we discuss at greater length in our Analytics Report, which is for sale at informationweekanalytics.com, market dynamics are shifting as new entrants, including Google, begin to support open standards and launch ambitious plans to participate in the wireless market. Carriers around the world are announcing support for WiMax, and there's mounting vendor anticipation that mobile broadband will be a source of huge new revenue from a variety of applications, both consumer and business oriented.
As for where to expect 2G vs. 3G globally, most developed countries now have 3G networks in place, with UMTS enjoying a wide lead over EV-DO. UMTS is common throughout the Americas, Europe, and Asia, while EV-DO is also available in the Americas and Asia, as well as Eastern Europe. In countries with high population densities, it's not uncommon for 3G to be available throughout the cellular coverage area, but in the United States, it favors urban locales. And while China has awarded licenses for 3G, deployment to date has been limited to trials.
A word on WiMax: There are relatively few WiMax networks today, and many of them are fixed. In the United States, Clearwire operates a network that will transition to WiMax, but its subscriber count is modest. The biggest hope for widespread deployment is with Sprint Nextel, so keep an eye on what the company does. If it deploys nationwide this year, the service could be an attractive alternative, especially if it delivers promised speeds two to four times faster than current cellular data services.
However, while 3G networks are getting faster, mileage varies, so do your own tests.
While the percentage of cellular carriers' revenue from data plans remains relatively low--less than 20%, even including lucrative text messaging services--the expected year-over-year growth rate is high. Primary drivers are higher data throughput, averaging close to 1 Mbps for many networks; low latency of around 100 milliseconds; availability in most major metropolitan areas; multiple device options, including smartphones, PC Card modems and embedded options for laptops; flat-rate pricing; and an increasing selection of mobile applications and middleware.
Barriers include relatively high pricing, up to $60 per month for unlimited data plans for laptops and $20 to $40 for smartphones; confusion stemming from the large number of carriers and swiftly evolving technology options that now include WiMax; and the fact that radio is not wire, meaning that the most effective wireless applications are the ones specially designed for that medium.
Another challenge for wireless carriers: The broadband market has become a moving target. Five or 10 years ago, a 1-Mbps wireless-data service would have been most welcome, but with wireline services now five to 10 times faster than mobile offerings, and affordable 100-Mbps throughput forthcoming through fiber-to-the-home services, wireless-data rates will continue to lag wireline services. This shouldn't impact most business applications, for which 1 Mbps or so is more than sufficient. Still, many applications on 3G wireless networks will "feel" slower to users than on high-speed LANs.
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Sunny Long-range Forecast
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