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The Future Of Mobile Tech: Next Year's Notebooks Will Be Worth Waiting For


Wireless Use Will Continue To Expand



(Page 4 of 7)

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Wireless Use Will Continue To Expand

Wireless connectivity is already nearly universal in laptops. Right now that means the 802.11g standard. But over the next year, the move to 802.11n, with its greater range and higher throughput, will begin in earnest.

While certification of the 802.11n standard isn't expected before mid-2008, manufacturers and the WiFi Alliance have pushed a cross-compatibility validation program for equipment based on Draft 2 of the specification. As a result, the move to 11n is starting -- there are some computer makers, like Apple, that are 100% in the 11n camp already. Overall, only 10% of WLAN cards are 802.11n today, but in 2008 there will be a fairly heavy shift, according to Michael Hurlston, vice president and general manager for chipmaker Broadcomm's wireless LAN division: "Over the next year we'll go from 10% 11n / 90% 11g to something like 40% 11n / 60% 11g."

It's an application-driven change, he says, pushed by data-server applications and media streaming, and it will enable PC makers to offer software that takes advantage of the ability to move lots of bits through the air: video capture, video streaming, and similar media programs. (This move to 802.11n will affect desktop PCs, as well, according to Hurlston: "Something like 15 percent of desktop PCs come with WLAN installed, but with 802.11n, that will rise to 30% over the next year.")

Other wireless technologies are competing for real estate inside PCs, too; specifically, Bluetooth and wide-area networking (WAN). WLAN chipsets are having to shove over to make room for these new technologies, according to Hurlston. WLAN chips are traditionally installed in notebooks in a mini-card form factor with a PCI Express bus connector, but manufacturers like Broadcomm are being forced to use smaller cards, or are doubling up technologies, building combination chipsets and cards that do both WLAN and Bluetooth.

Bluetooth support in laptops will mushroom next year. "Bluetooth is now on 20 to 25 percent of laptops," Hurlston says, "and that will increase to 50 percent by the end of next year." A big part of the reason is that the combined chips and cards not only ease the space squeeze, they drive the cost down.

Wide-area networking services like EV-DO and Edge from the mobile providers like AT&T, Sprint, ,and T-Mobile will be built into perhaps 10 or 15 percent of laptops next year, as well, says Hurlston. It's increasingly interesting to PC users who want to stay connected, he adds, and (perhaps just as importantly) it's a good business model for the laptop makers that get a bounty on customers they deliver to the mobile service providers. So it justifies pushing the business by installing WAN support in upscale notebooks for the corporate market, and increasingly in consumer notebooks.

Gartner's Leslie Fiering draws a strategic distinction between WAN support that's embedded in notebooks and external WAN cards. "The notebook vendors are pushing embedded WAN because it makes them money," she says, "but embedded technology makes service changes more difficult."

WAN service requires you pick a service provider and sign a contract, and often the WAN network hardware built into a notebook limits the buyer to a single provider. "And while service contracts run for two years, people are keeping their laptops for three, so there's a mismatch there, as well," she points out. "We're leery of embedded WAN for users who aren't sure how they'll use it. External WAN cards are a better bet: It's a $100 card, but you don't give up the whole notebook to change your service provider."

There is, however a downside to cards, as well. Most WAN cards come in PC Card format, and PC Card slots were supposed to be replaced by the newer PC Express card format, but the transition has been slow coming because there are so many legacy cards. "We're seeing both PC card and PC Express slots in enterprise machines to deal with this problem," says Fiering. "Consumers have been slow to make the change because of the legacy cards, but they'll start next year."

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