Global LCD TV shipments, which have been increasing sequentially every quarter since 2005, are expected to drop in the first quarter of next year, and not resume record shipments until the third quarter, a market research firm said Tuesday.

Shipments of the most popular high-definition TVs are expected to reach a record of 25.1 million units in the fourth quarter, iSuppli said. In the first quarter of 2008, however, shipments are expected to drop to 19.5 million units, due primarily to the seasonal slowdown that follows the holiday shopping season.

In the second quarter, iSuppli predicts shipment numbers to rise to 21.9 million units, which is still down from the peak fourth quarter in 2007. By the third quarter of 2008, however, shipments are expected to reach a record quarterly high.

Also pointing to a pending slowdown is the quarterly compounded growth rate for 2007 and 2008, which is expected to reach 11.5%, iSuppli said. In comparison, the quarterly growth rate in 2005 through 2006 was 22.7%.

Nevertheless, shipments and revenue are forecast to remain impressive. ISuppli forecasts a 31.9% compound annual growth rate for LCD TV shipments for 2006 through 2011, or 41.4 million units to 165.3 million units.

Revenue in the market is expected to reach $116.2 billion in 2011, increasing at a 19.4% CAGR from $47.8 billion in 2006, iSuppli said.

Meanwhile, global shipments of plasma display panel TVs, which compete with LCD TVs, picked up in the third quarter of 2007, reaching 2.9 million units from 2.3 million in the second quarter and 2.5 million in the third quarter of 2006. Much of the growth took place in the Middle East, Africa, and China.

Plasma display panel TV shipments also are slowing, but the market is expected continue to grow to 19.3 million units by 2011 from 9.3 million in 2006. Revenue, however, is expected to drop to $14 billion in 2011 from $15.9 billion in 2006. The expected decline is based on deep cuts in average selling prices that will be necessary to keep PDP TVs competitive with LCD TVs, iSuppli said.