For technology, the world of banking can be likened to a major movie production in which scores of actors clamor for only a few coveted spots. There are, however, scattered among the extras, a few stars waiting for someone with a careful eye to recognize their potential.

In the tech-heavy productions orchestrated by banks, these potential stars are overlooked change agents, often described as disruptive technologies. They're new products, services, and business models that initially target small, often unprofitable customer segments but eventually evolve to take over the marketplace, says Clayton Christiansen, founder of consulting firm Innosight.

For bankers, change is never easy. "Banks tend to be interested in new technologies early, but they tend to embrace new technologies too late," says Steve Wunker, a partner with Innosight. Yet banks should be commended for ushering in the future, he adds. "Historically, there have been a lot of disruptive technologies in banking, from payment systems to ATMs to the Web," he says. "But in the present day, we haven't seen major new disruptive technologies pushed--more like disruptive business models."

So what will be some of these transformative technologies in 2006 and beyond? Experts in a variety of areas gave InformationWeek's sister publication Bank Systems & Technology their take on what may be some of the most pivotal disruptions in banking.

Out Of Touch
Swipeless or contactless payment cards operating with radio-frequency identification technology received much attention in 2005. The idea behind these cards is to wean consumers off cash for low-value transactions while giving them a convenient means to pay merchants. But will such a cash alternative take a bite out of banks' ATM networks?

"Contactless is about cash displacement and throughput," says Jim van Dyke, principal analyst at Javelin Strategy & Research. Maybe you'll see some erosion, but the ATM model has to change, too, he says.

"If you think of ATMs as cash dispensers," maybe contactless poses a threat, adds Nina Owens, global solutions leader, payments strategy, with MasterCard International. "But that's not the best way to look at ATMs. You should see them as a way to provide value-added services." Swipeless, Owens says, could in fact enhance the ATM, offering further convenience to consumers.

Paul Race, innovative marketing director at NCR, sees opportunity in contactless. It's "one of these disruptive technologies that will change consumer behavior," he says. For ATMs, it can offer more "simplistic technology" for accessing money, Race says. Or banks can go a step further and eliminate cards, replacing their functionality with RFID-enabled mobile phones, he says.

Another type of card--payroll cards--is a plastic substitute for costly paychecks. They have existed for a while, although banks haven't exactly embraced them, says Cynthia von Hollen, banking industry principal at SAP. In spite of any perceived danger of disintermediation, in which users find they no longer need to maintain bank relationships, insiders say payroll cards actually can provide banks with a terrific opportunity for growth.

Large banks have been in the payroll-card market for years, explains Katy Jacob, senior analyst at the Center for Financial Services Innovation. They know it's a good value-add for commercial customers, she says.

But a good payroll-card program also looks beyond the employer, Jacob says. Since some employees don't maintain bank accounts, payroll cards open the door for banks that want to reach this segment of the market. "None of these cards can exist without financial institutions," Jacob says. "Prepaid cards change the way banks look at customers. It's a way to get into new spaces and sell customers higher-margin products in the future."