CAN APPLE REALLY SELL 10 MILLION iPHONES?
The iPhone's high price tag, Apple's decision to pair only with one wireless network operator in the United States, and cell phone users' loyalty to their existing providers could prove to be formidable roadblocks to Apple's goal. --Eric Zeman
informationweek.com/1130/ blog_iphone.htm

Sure, it'll sell 40% of its estimated 10 million phones during the first few weeks--that's your early adopters. But like me, the later majority, I'll wait a few months, make sure the bugs are addressed, hope that competition comes in, and I'll buy the iPhone 2.0 for $200. --Calos Arcila

I don't see it happening for all the reasons outlined in this article. The phone does have the cool and new factor going for it, but if you look at it, it's really limited on what it can do. I'm just going to get LG's Prada phone. It also has the touch-screen features like the iPhone, but this summer the phone will run Windows Mobile 6. It's a great combination of cool plus all the amazing features of Windows Mobile 6 and tie-ins with all the Live.com services. Also, you won't be limited to Cingular.

Since the Prada phone is identical in hardware design but cheaper and has better functionality and Windows Mobile 6, I predict Apple will only be able to sell 4 million units of the iPhone. --Christina

Think of the iPhone not just as a phone--it's a phone, video iPod, and an Internet communications device. So the market for this isn't just folks buying cell phones, but also better or replacement video iPods and better browsing and Internet communication devices.

While the phone arena is competitive, none of them (Nokia, Samsung, or LG) has truly innovated beyond better design and form factors. This is similar to the MP3 player market, where Apple came in late but was able to put together a device, user interface, and music store that drove value from a consumer's perspective.

Let's add up the price of a video iPod, smartphone, and a good Wi-Fi portable device and then compare it to the iPhone price. I'm certain folks will find value in the new device. Finally, the 10 million units is a worldwide number, not just the United States. Apple sold 48 million iPods last year; 10 million iPhones is an achievable target. --Guest

Of course it can. Also, I'm weary of hearing people criticize Apple for choosing an exclusive carrier. There was a reason for that. It was able to get an industry first, Visual Voice Mail, so that you can select which voice mail to listen to in any order you choose. That required architecture on the cell side. It also needed a carrier that adhered to standards common globally, and that meant Cingular. Period. No other carrier could do what it did, nor would be available for further innovations. Also, Verizon is known for limiting features on phones, and there's no way in heck it would sell the iPhone with how it promotes its own V Cast.

Is the price high? Most certainly. However, do the pundits not know how to use Google? Just Google the articles about the iPod introduction. Notice any similarities in the pundits' prognostications? "Priced too high, too much competition, not enough features, locked into Apple," etc. And yet, the iPod is the dominant music player on the planet because Apple did it right. --Mackeyser