The U.S. government should not make cyberwarfare a priority investment area, according to a report from public policy think tank RAND Corp.
The report, which was underwritten by the Air Force, recommends that the government focus instead on shoring up defenses of critical infrastructure like the nation's telecommunications networks, banking systems, and power grid that may be vulnerable to cyber attack.
"Operational cyber war has an important niche role, but only that," the report states.
At best, cyberwarfare operations "can confuse and frustrate operators of military systems, and then only temporarily," the report notes. "The salient characteristics of cyberattacks--temporary effects and the way attacks impel countermeasures--suggest that they be used sparingly and precisely. Attempting a cyberattack in the hopes that success will facilitate a combat operation may be prudent; betting the operation's success on a particular set of results may not be."
The report contends that unlike regular warfare, which aims to break down enemy defenses and morale to get the other side to give in, countries often respond to cyber attacks by hardening their defenses and making them less vulnerable to future attacks. "Casualties are the chief source of the kind of war-weariness that causes nations to sue for peace when still capable of defending themselves--but no one has yet died in a cyber attack," the report says.
Further, cyber attacks often have ambiguous sources that make them difficult to retaliate against or could create new enemies if a source is misidentified. And they only temporarily disarm enemies, since computer equipment can easily be replaced.
The report warns that "non-state actors" could jump into the fray. However, it bases few of its conclusions on such scenarios, even though individuals or loose-knit groups tend to be the more obvious ongoing threat on the Internet.
Despite warnings that cyberwar may have a limited role, the report notes that some investment is appropriate.
"Operational cyberwar has the potential to contribute to warfare -- how much is unknown and, to a large extent, unknowable," it says. "Because a devastating cyber attack may facilitate or amplify physical operations and because an operational cyberwar capability is relatively inexpensive, it is worth developing."
The Air Force created a dedicated cyber command earlier this year, which became operational in August. That force includes about 6,000 active duty personnel and is expected to have an annual budget exceeding $5 billion.
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