Software // Information Management
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7/17/2012
10:49 AM
Doug Henschen
Doug Henschen
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If BI Is Dead, What's Next?

New studies from Constellation Research and IDC reveal that the business intelligence market is in transition, with analytics, visualization, and big data driving the fastest growth.

"BI is dead! Long live BI!"

This is the provocative title of a new report that concludes that business intelligence as we know it is in transition, becoming just one element of "a continuum of decision-management capabilities."

That continuum, according to the report's author, Constellation Research analyst Neil Raden, will include everything from predictive modeling, machine learning, and natural language processing, to business rules, data visualization, and what the report describes as "traditional" BI.

Rest assured: there's still a large and growing BI market, as revealed by the latest installment of IDC's annual BI and analytics market share report, "Worldwide Business Analytics Software 2012-2016 Forecast and 2011 Vendor Shares," which was released last week. But just the fact that the name of the IDC report has been changed from "Business Intelligence" to "Business Analytics" speaks volumes about which way the market is headed.

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We all saw the hand wringing in recent years over BI not living up to its promise, with adoption rates below 20% or even 10% of potential users at many enterprises. But that's "probably the right level" given the limitations of legacy BI tools, says Raden. I couldn't agree more, and I've previously called for better ease of use, ease of deployment, affordability, and ease of administration.

What's largely missing from the BI landscape, says Raden, is the ability for business users to create their own data models. Modeling is a common practice, used to do what-if simulation and scenario planning. Pricing models, for instance, are used to predict sales and profits if X low-margin product is eliminated in hopes of retaining customers with products A, B, and C.

Insurance companies use models to map out their policies by region and predict claims in the event of a category 5 hurricane or at various flood stages. Yield management models are used by hotels and airlines to fill rooms and seats. Risk and contingency models are used by financial services to foresee loan failure rates and plan reserves against losses.

The models described above are the province of sophisticated analytics teams, but Raden says business users need flexible and easy-to-use tools for modeling. Microsoft Excel and budgeting and planning applications come closest, he says, but we need tools that are less prone to creating data inconsistencies and version-control problems than Excel, on the one hand, and that are more accessible to business users than budgeting and planning apps, on the other.

Where corporate data is concerned, BI is too often locked into read-only reporting against fixed-schema data warehouses. Want to add a new data attribute? Well, that will require an IT project and a few days or weeks of work to change the schema. Such rigidity is just not in keeping with an era that's supposed to be about embracing new data sources and supporting decisions with deep insight.

Raden lays out a dozen data-modeling best practices that he says will lead the way to better BI. He wants visual modeling tools that hide the complexity of selecting data sources and improve understanding. He calls for zero coding, so the act of exploring new data sources doesn't demand a degree in programming. And he asks for robust collaboration and workflow capabilities, so insights can be shared and connected with business processes.

It's no coincidence that IDC's latest BI and analytics market share stats show that the three fastest-growing vendors in the industry are Tableau Software, QlikTech, and Tibco Spotfire, with reported growth rates of 94%, 43%, and 23% in 2011, respectively. All three blend data visualization, analytics, and high-scale in-memory analysis capabilities. In my view they're moving toward the kind of flexible and accessible analysis environments that Raden calls for. Their interfaces and approaches are being imitated by larger vendors, though it's too soon to say whether those efforts will transform the way people interact with BI.

IDC forecasts that advanced analytics (the uber category for predictive modeling and machine learning) will grow 10.1% per year through 2016 and content analytics (the parent of natural language processing) will grow 14.5% per year through 2016. Traditional BI query, reporting, and analysis tools, meanwhile, will see still-impressive 9.5% annual growth, according to IDC.

The data warehousing platform category is expected to grow 11.2% per year through 2016. Open source, nonrelational big data platforms such as Hadoop and NoSQL databases will mostly run alongside existing business analytics systems, IDC predicts, but in a few cases will cut into conventional data warehousing sales.

Most of the cost of big data platforms is in hardware and services, not software, says Raden. Nonetheless, the demands of big data analysis make flexible data modeling all the more important. Business people want software that lets them "address only the meaning of data--not its structure, location, or format," Raden explains.

That was true back when BI tools analyzed relatively small quantities of run-of-the-mill transactional data. It's an even bigger imperative now that the volume, variety, velocity and complexity of data are getting harder to manage.

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neil raden
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neil raden,
User Rank: Apprentice
7/17/2012 | 8:42:24 PM
re: If BI Is Dead, What's Next?
Thanks for the mention Doug. I should point out that I am no longer part of Constellation Research. Further research reports on Big Data, Analytics, BI and Decision Management will be coming from my firm, Hired Brains.
brunoaz
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brunoaz,
User Rank: Apprentice
7/18/2012 | 6:41:33 AM
re: If BI Is Dead, What's Next?
Nice article Doug. Totally agree with Neil's analysis here. We've over shot on building tools for the elite and forgot that BI is about the person who doesn't know how to spell "BI".

I worry that the "Big Data" frenzy is creating so much noise that our industry will make the same mistakes with Big Data.

In the end, if you don't have models, if you don't have proper data management, beautiful visualizations are meaningless. We've known this for years - it might be time for a change.

Analytically Yours,
Bruno Aziza
VP Marketing, SiSense
ramamurh
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ramamurh,
User Rank: Apprentice
7/18/2012 | 12:26:43 PM
re: If BI Is Dead, What's Next?
Great article. I fully subscribe to Neil's analysis.
Look forward to the era of "Big Data" and analytics. Greater emphasis is being place on business activity monitoring, continuous auditing etc which is going to be relying on Big Data. Certainly an interesting evolution of data view.
MHoffman
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MHoffman,
User Rank: Apprentice
7/18/2012 | 12:46:27 PM
re: If BI Is Dead, What's Next?
Nice - after I recovered from title - Visualization and ease of use are nice, but BI output is mostly unrefined, unfinished when made available to business managers and executive teams.
Working with some of the greatest brains in BI, I always have to stress budgeting for preparation of analytics findings, reports, discoveries and observations as 'content' - to be educational, entertaining and engaging. Not just a picture or chart, but a story and multiple scenarios - i.e. always have best case, moderate case, worst case outcome numbers, and, where possible crate an environment where analytic audience can engage in simulations with information based on their roles - (this will also help with analytics talent shortage http://www.mckinsey.com/Insigh... ) where virtual scenarios can encompass multiple situation outcomes.

The article should highlight that technical analytic capabilities currently outstrip companies ability to use them - as is the case easy to use regression (wait, that's the user problem - less than 10% of people ever want to discuss regression) in SPSS & Angoss, etc. and big data applications outstrip and augment traditional warehouses and data marts -

Net, net - focus on audience and outcomes - Managers need to assume any question can be answered (with current technology and data access) and spend their time asking the questions with greatest outcomes... BI and BA is just a cost until it changes outcomes.

Michael R Hoffman, 908.542.1134
Paragon Solutions, NJ

Scott Wallask
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Scott Wallask,
User Rank: Apprentice
7/18/2012 | 3:14:10 PM
re: If BI Is Dead, What's Next?
Honestly, I think this constitutes a name change. It's a change to a more accurate name, no doubt, but the goals remain the same. CDs morphed into MP3s, but we're still talking about music. MP3s are more versatile, as are the new analytics tools. It will be interesting to watch user adoption when tools like visualization go on the table.
jtaylor943
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jtaylor943,
User Rank: Apprentice
7/18/2012 | 5:43:37 PM
re: If BI Is Dead, What's Next?
Neil's paper has some great advice on best practices and is definitely worth a read. As I said in my own blog post on this, I think it is time to move from talking about BI (associated in most people's minds with reporting and dashboards) to talking about Decision Management (focused on decisions, especially repeatable ones, and their effective management with information systems).

The folks Bruno talks about (the ones who can't spell BI) don't need new, easier to use versions of the current tools. They need systems that can tell them what the best answer is, or at least what the top few possible answers are. They need systems that manage decisions not simply present information.

James Taylor
CEO Decision Management Solutions
Blog at http://jtonedm.com
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