Autonomous Cars In, Big Data Out In Gartner Hype Cycle - InformationWeek
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Data Management // Big Data Analytics
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8/19/2015
02:05 PM
Larry Loeb
Larry Loeb
Commentary
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Autonomous Cars In, Big Data Out In Gartner Hype Cycle

Gartner's annual Hype Cycle is out, and IoT and autonomous cars are in this year. Big data, however, is losing some of its luster.

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Data And Analytics Strategies: What Investors Think
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A few years ago, the Gartner Hype Cycle was all about big data, and what it means for the business world. However, in 2015, it seems that autonomous vehicles and the Internet of Things (IoT) are the cool new technologies that enterprises need to keep an eye on.

This week, Gartner released its 2015 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies report, and it is full of changes in how various technologies are viewed by the firm's analysts.

In the Aug. 18 report, Gartner Vice President Betty Burton writes: "The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies is the broadest aggregate Gartner Hype Cycle, featuring technologies that are the focus of attention because of particularly high levels of interest, and those that Gartner believes have the potential for significant impact."

The cycle is broken up by Gartner into five areas. Ranked from earliest to last in the cycle, the categories are: Innovation Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and Plateau of Productivity.

The cycle aims to track how a technology goes from "gee-whiz" to "understood and used" over its lifetime. The "Peak of Inflated Expectations" generally means that Gartner thinks a technology is at least two to five years from the "Plateau of Productivity," and maybe even five to 10 years from that phase.

Just two years ago, big data was at this peak of the hype cycle. It was replaced last year by the Internet of Things, a ranking that IoT still holds in this report. Indeed, big data is nowhere to be found on the current Garter Hype Cycle.

(Image: matdesign24/iStockphoto)

(Image: matdesign24/iStockphoto)

The disappearance shows how hype can be ephemeral.

Additionally, the absence of any specific cybersecurity technologies from the Hype Cycle is puzzling, although "digital security" and "software-defined security" are mentioned as pre-peak areas. Such terms are rather vague and do not appear to reflect any concrete technology.

Given the abundance and scope of massive data breaches in the last year – Ashley Madison, anyone? – one might expect more attention in this segment.

New to this Hype Cycle is the emergence of technologies that support what Gartner calls digital humanism. That is the idea that people are the central focus in the manifestation of digital businesses and digital workplaces.

Autonomous vehicles, such as Google self-driving car and Apple's unofficial Project Titan, have also advanced on the curve. Self-driving vehicle technology has shifted from pre-peak to peak of the Hype Cycle.

(Image: Google)

(Image: Google)

While autonomous vehicles are still embryonic in their development, this movement still represents to Gartner "a significant advancement, with all major automotive companies putting autonomous vehicles on their near-term road maps."

[Read how a bad database can ruin your apps. ]

Coming up earlier in the cycle, Gartner sees a growing momentum – from post-trigger to pre-peak – in connected-home solutions. Analysts believe this type of technology has introduced entirely new solutions and platforms enabled by new technology providers and existing manufacturers.

The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies interacts with the last three stages of Gartner’s six "progressive business era" models. These last three include digital marketing, digital business, and autonomous.

The digital marketing stage incorporates what Gartner calls the Nexus of Forces, specifically mobile, social, cloud, and information.

Digital business is the first "post-nexus" stage and focuses on the convergence of people, business, and things. IoT and the concept of blurring the physical and virtual worlds are part of this stage.

The final autonomous stage is an enterprise's ability to leverage technologies that provide humanlike or human-replacing capabilities.

Larry Loeb has written for many of the last century's major "dead tree" computer magazines, having been, among other things, a consulting editor for BYTE magazine and senior editor for the launch of WebWeek. He has written a book on the Secure Electronic Transaction Internet ... View Full Bio
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larryloeb
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larryloeb,
User Rank: Author
8/20/2015 | 8:13:03 AM
Re: breach
Well, Amazon's Echo is supposed to keep the voice stream local until it hears the trigger phrase.

I suppose a trigger could be set downstream to it, and the voice uploaded.

But this is the sort of hack some laptops are vulnerable to, where the cameras get turned on remotely.

Unless you are ready to go off the grid, you can be tracked. But its your smartphone that may be the biggest threat vector, not the Echo. Yet, anyway.
SaneIT
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SaneIT,
User Rank: Ninja
8/20/2015 | 8:07:43 AM
Re: breach
I suspect what we'll see first is blackmail via Google and Amazon's hub products that are listening in on every conversation in the house.  A phone call warning a home owner that the conversation they had about how much they hate their job is about to be posted on the companies Twitter page, or someone gets mad at their neighbor because their dog is loose and they make some idle threat.  Then the police show up with a recording of the conversation in the house.  We're opening ourselves up for this and not even thinking about security at this point. 
Ariella
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Ariella,
User Rank: Author
8/19/2015 | 8:47:00 PM
Re: breach
That it is.
larryloeb
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larryloeb,
User Rank: Author
8/19/2015 | 8:45:53 PM
Re: breach
Isn't that what GM said about all those ignition defects too?

Karma is a bitch.
Ariella
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Ariella,
User Rank: Author
8/19/2015 | 7:49:04 PM
Re: breach
@larry Unfortunately, that's the way things go. Until then -- and I've heard words to that effect from somene directly -- they say, "the benefits still outweigh the risks."
larryloeb
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larryloeb,
User Rank: Author
8/19/2015 | 6:32:58 PM
Re: breach
I wait for all the first breach though a Cisco router (ROMCONN, anyone?) that burns a house down through a Nest thermostat.

Or something like that.

It will take some disaster to get the public's attention.
Ariella
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Ariella,
User Rank: Author
8/19/2015 | 5:33:32 PM
Re: breach
In the US, they're still sticking to self-regulation for the industry surrounding IoT. In fact, the Online Trust Alliance (OTA) recently published a draft trust framework recommending specific best practices for data privacy and protection manufacturers should follow
larryloeb
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larryloeb,
User Rank: Author
8/19/2015 | 5:11:31 PM
Re: breach
Well, i was thinking more broadly than just cars.

There is a big movement in Washington to justify domestic spying under the rubic of cybersecuity; but that's another screed altogether.

My hype list would have security in huge bold letters. I think it may be the topic for the next year, in its various forms.
Ariella
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Ariella,
User Rank: Author
8/19/2015 | 4:54:05 PM
Re: breach
Already proposed for cars back in July.  Senators Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) introduced legislation under the somewhat cumbersome title ''Security and Privacy  in Your Car Act of 2015'' or the more catchy''SPY Car Act of 2015'' to offer some transparency and protection for people who drive connected cars. Making the case for  for the law, Senator Blumenthal pointed out, "Rushing to roll out the next big thing, automakers have left cars unlocked to hackers and data-trackers."

 
larryloeb
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larryloeb,
User Rank: Author
8/19/2015 | 4:44:29 PM
Re: breach
Washington may force some cybersecurity down thier collective throats though.
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