Nate Silver Predicts 2016 Presidential Race At Salesforce World Tour - InformationWeek

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11/18/2015
11:20 AM
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Nate Silver Predicts 2016 Presidential Race At Salesforce World Tour

Nate Silver, the world's most famous statistician, offered his perspectives on the news media, political polling, and what will happen in the 2016 US presidential election during a presentation at the Salesforce World Tour in New York today. Here's what he said.

(Image: Jessica Davis/InformationWeek)

(Image: Jessica Davis/InformationWeek)

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GarthP584
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GarthP584,
User Rank: Apprentice
4/22/2016 | 6:40:09 AM
Re: Remember the Joe Scarborough bet?
Yeah, or you could question the potential of a near perfect and then perfect score in pre-polling and just accept that like many other fraudulent voting practices in the States, if you know the outcome *before* the election (as was accidently plastered across a CNN screen for a few minutes and was 100% correct - I still have the image) then it's pretty easy to make accurate polling decisions. In his position I'd be pretty confident too, when you have hte Ace up your sleeve. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it's pretty certain to be a duck. But everyone will continue calling it a swan because of the "magic" trick at work. Everything about US politics is a joke.
batye
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50%
batye,
User Rank: Ninja
12/6/2015 | 12:21:44 AM
Re: Remember the Joe Scarborough bet?
@Whoopty, I think it only matter of time, maybe few years from now...
batye
50%
50%
batye,
User Rank: Ninja
12/6/2015 | 12:16:37 AM
Re: Remember the Joe Scarborough bet?
@danielcawrey, yes, same here interesting to know :)
danielcawrey
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50%
danielcawrey,
User Rank: Ninja
11/24/2015 | 8:08:48 PM
Re: Remember the Joe Scarborough bet?
Very interesting, and very true about presidentail polling. 

People don't take phone surveys anymore, so everyone should be suspicious when a poll using telephones comes out. All the data for surveys have moved to the web, and it's making things harder to predict, especially when it comes to elections. 
BertrandW414
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50%
BertrandW414,
User Rank: Strategist
11/19/2015 | 10:59:10 AM
Re: Remember the Joe Scarborough bet?
I like your idea, Thomas... to borrow a "phraseology" from a certain candidate, if we could do this, it would be Huuuuuuge! ;-)
Whoopty
50%
50%
Whoopty,
User Rank: Ninja
11/19/2015 | 7:37:17 AM
Re: Remember the Joe Scarborough bet?
While I get aggravated having to listen to all the rhetoric in the lead up to the elections in the UK, it probably only lasts a month or at most two. In comparison you guys have to deal with this almost a year before voting begins. It's exciting to watch from the sidelines, but I bet it's insufferable to have day-in day-out. 

Interesting to see mass data analytics beginning to give us true future predictions though. I wonder how many years it will be before we can use big-data to predict all sorts of day to day events. 
Thomas Claburn
100%
0%
Thomas Claburn,
User Rank: Author
11/18/2015 | 4:33:39 PM
Re: Remember the Joe Scarborough bet?
If putting money where their mouth is would silence some of this year's political candidates, I'd gladly ante up. 
Charlie Babcock
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0%
Charlie Babcock,
User Rank: Author
11/18/2015 | 3:12:59 PM
Remember the Joe Scarborough bet?
I like Nate Silver. He had enough confidence in his information on the 2012 election to resent it when his projected Obama win attracted denunciations from Fox News. In response, he offered a public $2,000 bet with commentator Joe Scarborough on the outcome. That was followed by a long silence from Joe, who conceded after the election that Nate had been right. I like people who put some money where their mouth is.
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