re: IT Vendors Inflate Job Creation Claims
(Quoting the IDC/Microsoft study):
"The basic rationale for job growth is that IT innovation allows for business innovation, which leads to business revenue, which leads to job creation Gă÷ a premise that is not unique to this study."
There's no doubt that cloud, and especially public cloud economies of scale will take a bite out of the world's 7 million server administrators (~1 million US). While IDC doesn't offer a net-across assessment, the study does look to new jobs of all kinds created in response to bigger business revenues.
Assuming they are close to right, even if *every* admin job goes away, we are still net-up 5 million worldwide, and break-even in US. Not all server admin jobs will vanish, for a variety of reasons, but let's say half go away (and probably retrain to one of the new jobs). We're net-up over 8 million jobs, 500k in the US.
The study calls out "legacy drag"--a nod-your-head notion for any business or IT leader needing new IT capabilities but facing big legacy infrastructure. Upgrading equipment and skill sets is no joke, especially in smaller shops (where IDC suggests there is less legacy drag and so more and faster cloud uptake).
At the end of the study:
"Beyond this, and not measured in this study, is the use that cloud computing can be put to beyond mere capital cost avoidance."
So are net-new jobs more or less than 12 million? Don't know--we'll have to wait and see. But the estimated impact cloud will have on business revenues, plus the un-estimated impact of a new world of IT agility, especially for smaller businesses, makes me pretty confident that the cloud, net-across, is really good news for all of us.